The Arizona Wildcats flirted with elimination when they almost lost to the TCU Horned Frogs in March Madness’ Round of 32, and they’ll now look to bounce back and find a way to get by the Houston Cougars, who are playing some exceptional basketball right now.
Will the Wildcats take care of business against a feisty Cougars squad? Check out our Houston vs. Arizona March Madness picks and predictions for Thursday, March 24 to find out.
Houston vs Arizona odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
After opening Arizona as a 2-point favorite, the line is now down to 1.5 at nearly every sportsbook — despite most of the early action coming in on the Wildcats. The total, meanwhile, opened at 145 and is up to 145.5 in most spots.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Houston vs Arizona predictions
Predictions made on 3/23/2022 at 12:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for March Madness, here are two of the best bonuses available:
USA: New users at FanDuel can bet $5 on any March Madness tournament game and win $150 in site credits (30/1 odds) — regardless of if your bet wins or loses! Sign Up Now
Canada: Opt-in and bet a total of $10 on NCAA Tournament markets at BetVictor and receive $100 in free bets! Opt In Now
Houston vs Arizona game info
• Location: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
• Date: Thursday, March 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:59 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Houston vs Arizona betting preview
Injuries
Houston: Marcus Sasser G (Out), Tramon Mark G (Out).
Arizona: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Arizona is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games following a no-cover. Find more NCAA betting trends for Houston vs. Arizona.
Houston vs Arizona picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The oddsmakers appear to be begging bettors to take Arizona in this game, and that’s something we usually try to factor into our picks. However, we’re taking the bait in this contest, as the Wildcats just have too much offensive talent for this version of the Cougars.
Houston might be otherworldly on the defensive end, but citing defense as a massive advantage for the Cougars in this game is disrespectful to a Wildcats team that is 18th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com). Tommy Lloyd’s team is capable of digging in and getting big stops, but can Houston hang with Arizona on offense?
The Cougars have looked solid offensively in two tournament games thus far, but the UAB Blazers and Illinois Fighting Illini are nowhere near as good as this Wildcats team. At some point, Houston is going to miss the scoring of Marcus Sasser, who was the team’s leading scorer until he went down for the year with a foot injury.
Guys like Fabian White Jr., Kyler Edwards, Taze Moore and Jamal Shead have taken turns stepping up their scoring for the Cougars since Sasser went down, but Houston is facing an Arizona team that is loaded with offensive talent — and happens to be seventh in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Bennedict Mathurin, who had one of the most clutch March Madness performances in recent memory against TCU last game, is a sure-fire lottery pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. He’s a big body that can drill threes and create shots for himself off the dribble — and on the glass, where he’s an underrated rebounder — and he’s going to be the most reliable player with the ball in his hands in key moments of this game.
The Wildcats can simply go to Mathurin when they need buckets, which is a luxury that the Cougars are missing without Sasser. Arizona also has Dalen Terry and Kerr Kriisa at guard, and both players are capable of having big impacts on this one.
The Wildcats also have a massive edge in the paint in this game, as Christian Koloko and Azuolas Tubelis will be the two best big men on the floor. Arizona also brings Oumar Ballo off the bench, and he’s fully capable of making his mark on this game. All in all, Houston center Josh Carlton will have his work cut out for him.
It’s just hard to see where the Cougars have an advantage in this matchup, even if the team can be counted on to play harder than its opponents on most nights.
Prediction: Arizona -1.5 (-110)
Best Bonuses
Along with our March Madness best betting sites, check out the best bonuses available for the tournament.
Over/Under analysis
The Wildcats have scored at least 80 points in 12 of their last 13 games, so the Cougars are going to do everything in their power to disrupt the flow of Arizona in this one. That means that you can expect Houston to dig in harder than ever on the defensive end, and you should also count on the Cougars walking the ball up on offense, while limiting transition opportunities however possible. Watching Houston play will be a nightmare for this game’s Over bettors.
The Under is actually 7-2 in Houston’s last nine games, and the Cougars are coming off a meeting with the Illini in which only 121 total points were scored. Illinois isn’t as good as Arizona is offensively, but is capable of filling it up.
In Houston’s last 20 games as an underdog, the Under is actually 14-6. It’s also 4-1 in the last five games in which the Cougars were dogs on a neutral floor. And finally, the Under is 31-12-1 in the last 44 games in which Houston has played teams with winning percentages higher than .600, which just shows you how big of a priority it is for the Cougars to muck up games against good opponents.
Prediction: Under 145.5 (-110)
Best bet
While Arizona was unable to cover the spread against TCU last game, the Wildcats are 4-1 against the spread when coming off a no-cover. They’re also 13-4 ATS when playing in games with totals between 140 and 149.5 this year, and they won those games by an average of 21.2 points per game.
Of course, it’s not fair to expect Arizona to blow this Houston team out, but the fact that the Wildcats are so comfortable playing in games that are expected to be somewhat high-scoring should count for something. Since the start of 2022, Houston has played just one game with a total in the 140s and lost that game to the Memphis Tigers outright as 9.5-point favorites.
While it wouldn’t be surprising if the Cougars hung around for a little in the first half, the Wildcats should really find a way to pull away in the final 20 minutes. It took a 20-point, 14-rebound performance from Eddie Lampkin for TCU to nearly upset Arizona last game, and that one came out of nowhere. Lampkin’s previous season-high was only 16 points, and the Wildcats aren’t going to let something like that happen again.
Look for Arizona to come out and play a little angry after letting the last game nearly get away. The Wildcats have also heard all week about the Cougars’ toughness and defense, so that should light a fire under them as well.
Pick: Arizona -1.5 (-110)
Become a smarter March Madness bettor
Safe March Madness betting sites
