Beaver Fever has taken over the Midwest Region as the No. 12 Oregon State Beavers’ incredible run has taken them all the way to the regional final, but will a matchup with the No. 2 Houston Cougars be the cure that halts their Cinderella run?
If Oregon State wants to earn a trip to the Final Four it will have to win its seventh straight game as an underdog, this time as 8-point college basketball betting pups against a very strong Houston team.
Find out if we think they're up to the task in our best Oregon State vs. Houston March Madness picks and predictions for college basketball betting action on Monday, March 29.
Oregon State vs Houston odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonWilliam Hill US pegged Houston an 8-point favorite late Saturday night, made a couple of trips to -7.5 and is at -8 as of 5:15 p.m. ET Monday, two hours ahead of game time. Oregon State is attracting 62 percent of spread bets and 66 percent of spread money. "I think we’ll need Houston at the end of the day. Oregon State will probably be a public 'dog,” WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "With Oregon State, how many games in a row are they going to be getting this many points? The Pac-12 is rolling. I think all three Pac-12 teams have a chance at being public 'dogs this round." The total moved from 130.5 to 129, then inched to 129.5, with 64 percent of bets/61 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameOregon State Beavers vs Houston Cougars betting preview
Injuries
Oregon State: No injuries to report.
Houston: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Oregon State is 13-3-1 in its last 17 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon State vs. Houston.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Houston has been one of the most undervalued teams in the NCAA Tournament, and still were heading into the Sweet 16 when you consider their March Madness odds to win the tourney.
That probably had something to do with the Cougars' near-scare against Rutgers in the second round, but they got back on track in their Sweet 16 victory over Syracuse. The Cougs did that by getting back to what they do best: Playing defense. Houston suffocated Buddy Boeheim and the Orange, allowing them to shoot just 28 percent from the field in a 62-46 win, covering as 6.5-point favorites.
The win was the Cougs’ 10th in a row and they are now 27-3 for the season as that defense has led the way all year. Opponents hit fewer than 20 shots per game on 37 percent shooting—both tops in the nation. But that defense is going to have its hands full with an Oregon State team that (sorry in advance) Beav-lieves in itself.
Oregon State has now won six consecutive basketball games outright as underdogs, all at +5.5 or more. The Beavers beat a strong defensive team in Tennessee in the opening round, then Cade Cunningham and the Pokes in the second, and followed that up by taking out everyone’s favorite Cinderella in Loyola-Chicago.
But it’s not like the Beavers just started playing once the March Madness began. The win over the Ramblers was their ninth in their last 10 games and they have covered the number in 13 of their last 14. So, the question is, how has Oregon State done it?
For starters, the Beavers have been unconscious from beyond the arc, shooting 41.8 percent from 3-point range over their last six games. Second, they are getting after it on defense, limiting opponents to 38 percent from the field in the postseason. And finally, they are just playing like a real team right now.
When it comes to playing against Houston, Oregon State matches up well. While led by Ethan Thompson and Jarod Lucas, what makes Oregon State dangerous is that they don’t rely on any one player. On top of that, the Beavers are more than happy to play at the Cougars' slow pace. However, Houston should have an edge on the glass.
But when it comes down to it, it’s hard to fade a team getting this many points that have taken an ATS loss just twice since Jan. 10. Houston likely wins, but Oregon State won't make it easy. You could say, we’ve got a fever. Take the points with the Beavers.
PREDICTION: Oregon State +8.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The total for this Elite Eight matchup hit the board at 131.5, which shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering the way the two defenses are playing in this matchup. But still, 131.5 may be a bit too high.
Both Oregon State and Houston are coming off games that fell below the total. Oregon State snuck Under the 126 against Loyola-Chicago by three points, while Houston and Syracuse didn’t come close to the 141 total, falling 33 points short of the number.
While the Cougs rank eighth in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, they have averaged 62.5 points in their last two tourney games. In fact, in the Cougars’ last five games where they were favored by 10 points or fewer, they have averaged 66.2 points per game with the Under going 4-1 in those games. And even though the Beavers are mostly humming on offense, Loyola, whose defense was one of the best in the country, held them to 65 points.
When you consider that both teams like to play at a snails’ pace, this game has a real 65-62 feel to it, making the Under a solid bet.
PREDICTION: Under 131.5 (-110)
First to 15 pick
Getting off to strong starts has been a hallmark of Oregon State’s Cinderella run. During their six-game winning streak, they own a first-half margin of +6.8, and in the NCAA Tournament that bumps up to a whopping +12.
The Beavers have won the Race to 15 four times in that six-game stretch. Houston has been a strong First to 15 bet in its own right, having won it in six straight games, but when you consider the expected pace of this game, the value with the Beavers in this spot is too good to pass up.
PREDICTION: First to 15 - Oregon State (+140)
Oregon State vs Houston betting card
- Oregon State +8.5 (-110)
- Under 131.5 (-110)
- First to 15 - Oregon State (+140)
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Where can I bet on March Madness odds?
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