Penn State vs Texas A&M Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Lions Launch From Beyond the Arc

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Two plodding teams meeting would not usually be a moment to consider an Over, but the Texas A&M Aggies’defense may set up the Penn State Nittany Lions for an offensive explosion Thursday night.

March Madness odds have installed the Aggies anywhere from 2.5 to 3.5 favorites, but there is plenty of value in this matchup outside of simply picking a side.

Here are our free college basketball picks for Penn State vs. Texas A&M on March 16.

Penn State vs Texas A&M best odds

Penn State vs Texas A&M picks and predictions

Anyone in the SEC grades well analytically on defense in part because the entire conference shot threes so poorly. Looking at conference play only, the SEC — the same conference that boasts the overall No. 1 seed in the tournament — shot 32% from three, the worst conference in the country. As a result, the savvy defenses encouraged opponents to shoot from deep, like Texas A&M did.

Aggies’ opponents attempted threes on 45.9% of their field-goal attempts. Of tournament teams, only Iowa State ranks worse at 46.8%. Maybe Texas A&M baked in this defensive strategy in the preseason expecting the SEC’s shooting struggles, but that kind of foresight seems unlikely.

Nonetheless, the Aggies were encouraging deep heaves well before SEC play began. In 13 non-conference games, opponents shot 36.1% from deep compared to the 29.5% that SEC foes shot in 21 games.

Furthermore, Texas A&M was giving up 24.5 three-point attempts per game in non-conference play, 47.1% of their opponents’ field-goal attempts. Murray State took 22, Colorado shot 32, and Wofford shot 31 of them — all three combined to hit 42.4% of those shots. Know what those teams have in common? Not only are they not in the NCAA tournament, but they also all beat the Aggies early in the season.

This approach got Texas A&M to the SEC title game and now into the NCAA tournament. It worked, but it won’t this week, just like it didn’t early in the season against middling competition.

Penn State might be the best 3-point shooting team in the country, hitting 38.5% of them while taking them on 47.4% of its field-goal attempts. No other team ranked in the Top 20 in both of those categories, while the Lions are in the Top 10 in both.

Since Feb. 8, Penn State has gone 8-3-1 to the Over. Up until then, it had gone only 12-11 to the Over.

Of those 12 games, the Nittany Lions hit their team total Over in 10 of them, the two exceptions coming against Maryland and Rutgers — two of the best 35 defenses — per Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings, while also two of the 100 slowest teams in the country. A&M fits neither of those qualifications.

Penn State will be delighted to shoot in this opening-round matchup, and foolishly enough, A&M will let it.

My best bet: Penn State team total Over 66.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Penn State vs Texas A&M spread analysis

This number has bounced around from favoring Texas A&M by 2.5 to 3.5, with all those half-point options still available at different books as of Wednesday morning.

Both these teams have found a groove coming into the NCAA tournament. Penn State not only covered the spread in its last four games as it charged into the Big Ten championship game, but it has also covered in eight of its last 11 games dating back to February 11. Up until then, the Nittany Lions had been 12-11-1 ATS, delivering directly to expectations rather than repeatedly exceeding them.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M has gone 10-2 ATS since Feb. 1, a stretch in which the Aggies rank No. 9 in the Torvik ratings if filtered to just February and March.

Two recent trends collide here. Not only are both teams on relative heaters ATS since early February, but both those heaters include a handful of games with one-bucket spreads.

Penn State has gone 3-0 as a one-bucket underdog since Feb. 10 — with two of those coming in the first rounds of the Big Ten tournament — and Texas A&M has gone 5-1 in games with one-bucket spreads since January 1.

This is Nittany Lions' head coach Micah Shrewsberry’s first NCAA appearance, but Aggies head coach Buzz Williams has gotten this far now nine times in his 16 years as a head coach. In the previous eight, he has gone 3-5 ATS in the first round and 5-3 SU.

Penn State vs Texas A&M Over/Under analysis

If Penn State attempts 25 threes and makes nine of them, both about equal to A&M’s non-conference opponents but a bit short of the Lions’ average, then that alone will make up more than a quarter of this pregame total.

If that sounds convoluted, look at it this way: Shooting well below its averages, the underdog would need only 40-45% of its possessions to eat up more than a quarter of the total. That sets this game toward the Over before anything else is considered.

For that matter, of the three ATS wins as short underdogs enjoyed by the Nittany Lions recently, all three games hit their Overs.

That said, Texas A&M played three SEC opponents with 3-point shooting percentages greater than 34%: Missouri, Vanderbilt and Alabama. In those six total games, the Under cashed five times.

Penn State vs Texas A&M betting trend to know

When Texas A&M played a conference game on at least four days rest, it went 9-1 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 2-8 to the Under. Find more college basketball betting trends for Penn State vs. Texas A&M.

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