You have finished your bracket. You have placed your bets. Now it is time to ponder your most important March Madness commitment, your survivor picks for the first round.
For the uninitiated, a March Madness survivor pool requires you to pick one team to win per day (in some pools, per round) of the NCAA Tournament without ever picking a team a second time. Taking a national title contender on Thursday — like Houston or Auburn — could assure you passage to Friday, but it would prove very costly if the Cougars or the Tigers do end up making a run to the Final Four.
Your best bet each day is to find a team you are nearly certain will win, but one that should lose its next game or in the Sweet Sixteen. Preserve the likes of Duke, Florida, and Alabama for later rounds, but also avoid games that present as toss-ups like No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 San Diego State or No. 5 Memphis vs. No. 12 Colorado State, each of those games enjoying spreads within a bucket.
Not to give away my March Madness picks for this week — if you happen to be in the same survivor pool as I am, please stop reading now — but here are my best thoughts, which admittedly and obviously heavily correlate with my March Madness bracket.
Best first-round March Madness survivor picks
Thursday: Gonzaga
Some pools will require only one pick in the first round, be it from Thursday’s slate or Friday’s slate. In those pools, your debate should be between Gonzaga and Arizona.
But if in a pool requiring a pick from each day, consider the Bulldogs and the Wildcats as your driving forces.
Gonzaga may be the best No. 8 seed in NCAA Tournament history. Note: Research was not done to back up that claim, but given KenPom considers the Bulldogs to be the No. 9 team in the country, it feels like a rather strong thought.
Even just consider the three other 8 vs. 9 matchups: Mississippi State is favored by just one point against Baylor as of Wednesday afternoon, Louisville is a 2.5-point favorite vs. Creighton, and two-time defending champion UConn is a relatively lofty five-point favorite up against Oklahoma. Then there is Gonzaga at -6.5 vs. No. 9 Georgia.
Two teams one seed line apart should not be 25 spots apart in any efficiency rankings, or even just 15 spots apart if narrowing your focus to action since Feb. 1 by BartTorvik's projections.
From merely a survivor pool perspective, this is unprecedented value with an 8-seed, obviously a luxury given any 8-seed then faces a No. 1 seed. And as good as Gonzaga is, it will be a two- or three-bucket underdog against Houston on Saturday. Again from only the survivor pool perspective, now is absolutely the time to use Gonzaga.
The only question is if it will win against Georgia.
A well-rounded and efficient offense that thrives by moving the ball around — assisting on more than 60% of made field goals for the 10th-best assist rate in the country — should be enough to trust, especially when recognizing Gonzaga’s massive experience edge against Georgia.
Friday: Arizona
Arizona is a 14.5-point favorite against MAC champion Akron. The Zips have made the NCAA Tournament three times now in the last four years. In 2022, they pushed UCLA to some worry, losing 57-53 as 13.5-point underdogs. Last year, Creighton had far less trouble, knocking out Akron 77-60 and covering a 12-point spread in the process.
This week’s +14.5 fits rather in line. The issue is, this is the worst Akron defense of those three NCAA Tournament teams, and now it is playing an Arizona offense considered the 12th-most efficient in the country by Pomeroy and the 9th-most efficient since Feb. 1 according to Torvik.
This 13-seed cannot even cling to an experience or continuity edge against this 4-seed. You can be nearly certain the Wildcats will win.
They will then have two massively difficult games to slip past the Sweet Sixteen. Dana Altman is one of the best March coaches in the country, and getting past him and Oregon would lead to a date against Duke and some guy named Cooper Flagg.
Now is the time to use Arizona.
Cash your March Madness ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Thursday: Purdue
If looking to run a bit counter to your pool, ponder Purdue. The first round is not the time to get too fancy. Advance without burning any title contenders.
But while some people think High Point could upset the Boilermakers, you can capitalize by trusting last year’s national runner-ups and letting an upset elsewhere boost your cause.
Purdue’s veteran backcourt will ensure a win against High Point. Strong defense is the key to beating the Boilermakers this year, as head coach Matt Painter pivoted to a high-octane offensive approach with Zach Edey now in the NBA.
Meanwhile, one of Clemson, McNeese, and Houston would likely be Purdue’s next opponents. Getting past High Point should be easy enough, but anything further may be a leap, making the Boilermakers ripe for picking in this first round.
Friday: Saint Mary’s
Note: UConn was also considered. Both these possibilities are two-bucket favorites. The question may be, which of Saint Mary’s or UConn has a better chance of a surprising run? Doubting the Gaels to pull off a March push stems from their 3-point shooting struggles.
Saint Mary’s does not like shooting threes because it misses most of them. Against Alabama in the second round, that will lead to a math problem, since the Tide shoot 3-pointers like most of us eat pizza.
“Oh, there’s a slice of pizza? Cool.” No further thought is necessary. And Alabama makes 35.0% of those bites, if you will.
The Huskies may have underperformed this season, but they are the two-time defending champions. Outright doubting them by taking them in the first round of a survivor pool just feels a touch foolish.
Cash your March Madness ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
