March Madness Upset Predictions for the Second Round

Phil Naessens breaks down the second round of March Madness and offers his best March Madness upset predictions for Saturday, March 22.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Mar 22, 2025 • 08:50 ET • 4 min read
Arkansas Razorbacks guard Johnell Davis (1) controls the ball during the second half.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Arkansas Razorbacks guard Johnell Davis (1) controls the ball during the second half.

March Madness is the best time of the year.

We’ve already seen a few upsets, and the second round of the NCAA Tournament, which begins at various locations on Saturday, could bring a few more.

Saturday’s eight-game slate could be one for the ages, and I’ve found three March Madness upsets that could surprise us all.

Read on as I share my March Madness picks for Saturday, March 22.  

March Madness upset predictions

Arkansas moneyline (+240 bet365)

The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming off an upset victory over Kansas, and they have a winnable game against No. 2 St. John's Red Storm.

Frosh point guard Boogie Fland's return spread the floor and breathed life into an Arkansas offense that sometimes underachieved without him. 

Guard Johnell Davis went 4-9 from downtown, and when the triple wasn't available, Jonas Aidoo gave Kansas fits.

Arkansas could see a further boost; if he practices on Friday, leading scorer Adou Theiro could make his first appearance since a knee injury in late February.

That would be huge because Arkansas faces another daunting challenge on Saturday; St. John's owns the top defense at KenPom.

The Johnnies may be undersized, but their guards are tremendous defenders, and Zuby Ejiofor is a defensive force and one of the top offensive rebounders nationally.

Arkansas is slightly over 2:1 underdog for a reason. Still, the Razorbacks have size and enough offensive weapons with a defense that can stymie a mediocre Red Storm shooting team enough to pull off the upset. 

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McNeese moneyline (+200 at bet365)

I feel like a bandwagon jumper, but after watching the McNeese State Cowboys upset Clemson in the opening round, I've become a believer.

McNeese fully believed they could beat Clemson. A late-game Tigers comeback aside, McNeese whipped Clemson in every aspect of the game. 

Their solid defense and steady offense combine to make them capable of pulling off another stunner on Saturday against the Purdue Boilermakers.

Coming into March Madness, the Boilermakers had lost five of eight, and they didn't look that great on either end of the floor in their round-one victory over High Point.  

Purdue faces a McNeese defense that is good enough to defend Trey Kauffman-Renn in the paint and an ice-cold Braden Smith on the perimeter. They also rebound.

Maybe I'm one game late, but Purdue's offense looks out of sync. McNeese is a 2:1 dog for a reason, but they believe they can win, and its defense is good enough to back that up.

Michigan moneyline (+125 bet365)

The Michigan Wolverines fooled all the pundits and the March Madness odds by slipping past No. 12 seed UC San Diego.

They’ll have a similar fight when they meet the elite defense from No. 4 seed Texas A&M Aggies.  

The Aggies are a team the Wolverines can beat. Texas A&M won’t likely score enough nor have the size to overwhelm Michigan on the boards.

What Texas A&M does have is an opportunistic defense, averaging 19 points per tilt from turnovers. 

That’s a third of their offensive production. Michigan allows 15 points per game from its miscues, but the Wolverines can counter with its No. 13-ranked KenPom defense.

Michigan can beat this team. They’ll have length, chase an inconsistent Aggies three-point team off the arc, and bully them inside on both ends of the floor. 

The Wolverines turnover issues haven’t hurt them much recently, and if they can limit their turnovers, they will beat Texas A&M and advance to the Sweet 16. 

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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the tennis betting podcast, This Week in Tennis.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications including SB Nation, FanSided and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. Phil curates the Chip and Charge Tennis Newsletter and pens a weekly tennis column called “10 Things About the ATP Tour," for Passing Shot Productions. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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