The rite of passage known as March Madness is approaching its culmination, with 16 teams hoping for their one shining moment.
We’ve seen some upsets during the first two rounds, and we could see a few more as our 16 squads take the floor on Thursday and Friday.
Read on for my March Madness picks for the Sweet 16, beginning Thursday, March 26.
March Madness upset predictions
BYU moneyline (+180 at bet365)
I was skeptical of the BYU Cougars, but I believe Kevin Young and BYU have a puncher's chance of beating the Alabama Crimson Tide.
BYU has firepower and the depth to throw at Alabama. The Cougars bring a scorching offense ranked ninth in efficiency at KenPom and meet a Crimson Tide defense that’s somewhat leaky.
Alabama has surrendered 80+ points in seven of 10. The No. 29-ranked KenPom defense should have its hands full with Richie Saunders and sharpshooter Trevin Knell. BYU knocks down 37% of its 28.5 triple attempts. When they heat up from downtown, they could launch a barrage of treys the Crimson Tide might not be able to recover from.
The Cougars' No. 71-ranked KenPom stop unit won’t often stymie Mark Sears, Grant Nelson, and the Crimson Tide. However, they'll fight like Cougars on the glass, with fresh wheels hitting the floor every five minutes and length on the perimeter to defend against Alabama.
BYU’s 10-man rotation means fresh legs to run with the lightning-fast Crimson Tide.
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Arkansas moneyline (+200 at bet365)
Maybe I’m asking too much, but I like the Arkansas Razorbacks to upset the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Razorbacks’ edge lies in their depth and tempo, and I believe Arkansas can overwhelm the Red Raiders' thin seven-man rotation.
The Razorbacks' fast-paced attack can exploit Tech’s struggles in fast-paced ballgames — they are 3-3 straight up when pushed past 70 possessions and allowed 82.3 ppg in those three losses.
Fland’s speed and Thiero’s athleticism could force 12+ turnovers. If the fast-paced Razorbacks can get buckets from those turnovers, they can take Texas Tech to the wire.
Arkansas has the defensive size to deal with J.T. Toppin, and their speedy guards could cause a typically tidy Texas Tech ball-handling group to make mistakes like the Red Raiders did in their losses to Houston (13), Texas A&M (12), and Iowa State (11).
Head coach John Calipari has the Hogs believing in themselves and has enough weapons to win this game.
Kentucky moneyline (+160 at bet365)
It’s a Sweet 16 SEC showdown when the Kentucky Wildcats attempt to beat the Tennessee Volunteers for the third time this season.
The Wildcats put on a shooting clinic in both victories. Kentucky’s scoring balance and lights-out shooting from downtown overwhelmed the Vols’ No. 3 stop unit.
Kentucky also defended well in both games. It held a Tennessee squad somewhat reliant on the 3-ball to a combined 11-for-67 from downtown across its two victories.
Otega Oweh and Andrew Carr paced a versatile attack, while Amari Williams owned the glass, flipping a +4 rebounding edge across the season series.
Tennessee goes as Chaz Lanier does. He couldn’t find any rhythm against Kentucky’s stop unit in either game, and if he can be slowed down again, the Wildcats could pull off the upset.
