Michigan vs Penn State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Baldwin Shines for Nittany Lions

The time has come for the Michigan Wolverines’ season to come to a merciful end. It opened with some promise, a Top-25 team two weeks into the season by some metrics, 3-0 both outright and against the spread. And then, before March Madness odds could solidify, everything fell apart for Michigan. Absolutely everything.

Along the way to being counted out of the conference tournament odds, it lost to the Penn State Nittany Lions in Philadelphia, the pseudo-home team a 3-point underdog only to win 79-73. Given Penn State led by 11 points with five minutes to go, the game was not as close as the final score indicated.

A similar result should come tonight to cap off the opening day of the Big Ten Tournament bracket in Minneapolis, the Nittany Lions expected to cover in our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Penn State vs. Michigan on March 13.

Michigan vs Penn State best odds

Michigan vs Penn State picks and predictions

Juwan Howard owes Jim Harbaugh a thank-you card. The Wolverines winning the College Football Playoff kept any Michigan fans from turning much attention to the hardwood well into January. Harbaugh’s prolonged NFL job search, finally ending Jan. 24, then distracted them further.

At that point, the Wolverines were a woeful 7-12 overall and 2-6 in Big Ten play. Early-season promise had been dashed by a five-game losing streak lowlighted by a home loss to McNeese State.

In retrospect, falling to McNeese State was not the black mark it seemed at the time. The Cowboys would have an at-large argument if they fell in the Southland Conference Tournament this week. But in the moment, it served as a death knell to Michigan’s 2024. It died before Wolverines fans even tuned in.

More precisely, it died before Michigan football had even beaten Ohio State.

Back in mid-November, the Wolverines — the basketball version, to be clear — lost at home by eight points to Long Beach State despite being 15-point favorites. The Beach has no at-large argument, finishing fifth in the Big West Conference. But by dialing up the tempo, it ran Michigan out of its own gym.

That was the Wolverines’ first outright or against-the-spread loss, having started the year 3-0 in each regard. Including falling to Long Beach State, Michigan proceeded to fall short of 23 out of 28 spreads the rest of the way, 16 out of 20 in conference games.

Set aside the Big Ten’s odd December foray into conference play, and instead focus on the traditional post-Christmas conference play. Michigan went 3-15 ATS and 2-16 outright. If a team broke 75 points, the Wolverines went 1-11 ATS.

The three games Michigan covered the spread featured 67, 70 and 68 possessions. In the only four games with more than 70 possessions, the Wolverines went 0-4 ATS, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.6 points.

One of those, to no surprise, was against Penn State, the 51st-fastest team in the country, per Kenpom.

Just as Long Beach State showed, just as McNeese State did, the Nittany Lions should rely on pace to embarrass Michigan, mercifully ending this wretched season.

My best bet: Penn State -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Michigan vs Penn State same-game parlay

Penn State -7

Over 150.5

Ace Baldwin Over 14.5 points

Bonus bet promo available

+415 at DraftKings

First of all, both these teams trend toward the Over. Michigan cashed it in 17 of 30 games this season, while Penn State reached it in 20 of 31 games, understandably, given the Nittany Lions’ pace preference. And, recognizing Penn State’s greatest edge will come with an up-tempo approach, expecting a high-scoring game makes sense.

Their meeting in Philadelphia would have cleared this total, even if it fell 1.5 points short of its pregame mark.

Furthermore, the two best units on the court will be the two offenses.

Adding in an Over on the Ace Baldwin points prop ties to Michigan’s lackluster 3-point defense, giving up 35.9% from beyond the arc and 35.5% in conference play. For context, the Big Ten average was 33.9%.

The Wolverines generally limit shots from beyond the arc, but the ones they do give up tend to be good looks. And Baldwin doesn't need much of a look, shooting 34.8% from deep on 4.4 attempts per game.

He cleared this points prop in 12 of 20 conference games, including hanging 25 on Michigan in early January, burgeoned by going 9-of-10 from the charity stripe. He does not need to replicate that performance, but every leg of this same-game parlay would appreciate it if Baldwin did.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis

Advanced numbers favor Michigan with this spread, suggesting a 4-point game. That's part of why sportsbooks opened with Penn State favored by only 4.5 or 5, but the absolute malaise that is Wolverines basketball pushed the number up to -6.5 by the end of Tuesday. Some books even reached -7.5.

This will be the first time the Nittany Lions are favored by three buckets against a major opponent; take that as a sign that Penn State is no powerhouse. There's a reason it's playing on Wednesday in the Big Ten Tournament. The Nittany Lions were favored only twice in conference play, going 1-1 ATS.

Tonight’s total opened on Tuesday evening at 150, briefly touching 149 before reestablishing itself at 150.5.

Michigan vs Penn State betting trend to know

Of Penn State’s 23 games against major competition, 17 went Over their pregame totals. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Penn State.

Michigan vs Penn State game info

Michigan vs Penn State key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic