Minnesota vs Indiana Odds, Picks and Predictions: Gohphers Prove They're Golden

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will look to build on a seven-game winning streak when they visit the Indiana Hoosiers in a Big Ten matchup on Friday night.

Minnesota (12-3) is off to a 3-1 start in conference play, and has been exceeding expectations all year long. Yet the Golden Gophers are still underdogs in the college basketball odds to Indiana (11-5), which has lost two of its last three games.

The Golden Gophers are enjoying a remarkable turnaround this season, which should make this a tough matchup at home for the Hoosiers. We’ll break down who has the edge in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Minnesota vs. Indiana on January 12.

Minnesota vs Indiana best odds

Minnesota vs Indiana picks and predictions

What a difference a year has made for the Golden Gophers. Minnesota has finished under .500 in four straight seasons, with last year marking a low point, as the school finished just 9-22 with two wins in Big Ten play.

Minnesota has already eclipsed both its Over projected wins and conference victories after just 15 games this season. Playing at a controlled pace and showing remarkable balance on offense and defense, the Golden Gophers are starting to look like a team that could challenge for an NCAA Tournament spot.

There is one major caveat here: Minnesota has played an extremely weak schedule. However, the Big Ten conference slate promises to change that, and the Gophers already have wins over the Nebraska Cornhuskers, Michigan Wolverines, and Maryland Terrapins. 

Minnesota has found a true leader in junior forward Dawson Garcia. The 6-foot-11 big man is averaging 16.7 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, both team highs and career bests. He has scored 11 or more points in all but one game this year, providing consistent post pressure while also looking to shoot from deep to keep defenses honest.

Garcia will likely go head-to-head against Indiana’s Kel’el Ware. The 7-foot center is averaging 14.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per game himself, and it will be up to Ware to try and contain Garcia if Indiana wants to escape with a win at home tonight.

As for the Hoosiers, they’ve been playing a bit below expectations this season, and are coming off a disappointing 66-57 loss at Rutgers. Some of that loss was due to poor free throw shooting — Indiana shot just 4-for-15 from the line — but the Hoosiers have struggled in general against quality opponents this year, also losing to Nebraska and dropping marquee matchups against the Kansas Jayhawks, Auburn Tigers, and Connecticut Huskies. 

It's clear that Indiana has played a tougher schedule than Minnesota. What’s less clear is whether the Hoosiers losses in some of those tougher matchups signal a deeper issue. Indiana hasn’t been able to put away even weaker opponents, struggling to get past several smaller schools. In one case, they only escaped the Morehead State Eagles by a single point at home.

I’m not sure that Minnesota is clearly better than Indiana. But if I look at what they’ve accomplished on the court this year, it sure seems like the Golden Gophers have the edge here, and there doesn’t seem to be a talent gap to make up for that, either. With Minnesota coming into this game as an underdog, I’m taking the Gophers with the points.

My best bet: Minnesota +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Minnesota vs Indiana same-game parlay

Minnesota +4.5

Under 143.5

Dawson Garcia Over 15.5 points

+542 at FanDuel

I’ll start my same-game parlay for tonight with the same best bet on Minnesota to cover the 4.5-point spread. I’m combining that with the Under bet at 143.5 points. The Golden Gophers have played Under that total in three of their last four games, and generally try to slow the game down. Indiana will likely acquiesce to that, as they have when hitting the Under in their last two games.

I’m also throwing in a bet on Garcia to hit his scoring total of 15.5 points. Garcia has gone Over this total in six of his first 12 games this year, with one of the Under games being the Nebraska showdown in early December when he suffered an injury. Healthy and needed to perform in a big game at Indiana, I expect Garcia to get plenty of opportunities to score and bring our SGP home tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Minnesota vs Indiana spread and Over/Under analysis

Indiana opened tonight’s game as a 2.5-point favorite. Since then, the line has jumped to Indiana -4.5, with -110 odds available on both sides at most books.

Minnesota has been one of the best teams in the country against the spread so far this year, going an astounding 14-1 against the number. Indiana hasn’t put up that kind of success, posting just a 7-9 ATS record on the year.

The Golden Gophers have definitely been a surprising team this season, and it’s fair to question whether they’ve overperformed by a bit. However, we’ve seen enough to know this is a quality team, one that is at least on the level of Indiana — if not a step ahead of the Hoosiers. I’m backing Minnesota to cover the spread tonight, and this is a game it could win outright. 

The total on this game opened at 147 points. That number has dropped significantly, with various sites posting the Over/Under anywhere between 143.5 and 145.5 as of early Friday. In most cases, you can get -110 on either side at any of these numbers.

Both teams have played fairly neutrally to the total this year. The Under holds a slim 8-7 advantage when Minnesota plays, and is similarly ahead 8-7-1 in Indiana’s games this season.

I think this total is close to correct, but there are signs pointing to the Under. Both teams are riding short two-game streaks of hitting the Under, and these two teams should combine to play a slow-paced game — though neither will do so to any extreme degree. Still, this should be a typical, tightly-fought Big Ten contest, and that has me leaning towards the Under.

Minnesota vs Indiana betting trend to know

Minnesota is 14-1 ATS overall this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Minnesota vs. Indiana.

Minnesota vs Indiana game info

Minnesota vs Indiana key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic