Few teams have been as polarizing as Michigan State this season, and Tom Izzo’s program has a big opportunity against Minnesota this Thursday to continue to build momentum with March around the corner.
The college basketball odds have the Spartans as double-digit home favorites against the Golden Gophers in a game that should come down to which defense steps up to slow down the opposing team’s star. This game could end up looking more like a Big Ten football game with the inconsistencies on offense.
Find out where my best bets lie in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Minnesota vs. Michigan State on Thursday, January 18.
Minnesota vs Michigan State best odds
Minnesota vs Michigan State picks and predictions
Both Michigan State and Minnesota rely heavily on one player to carry the load on offense. For the Spartans that’s guard Tyson Walker, and for the Gophers it’s big man Dawson Garcia. But beyond those two, both of these programs have struggled to score consistently on a nightly basis.
Izzo’s defense in particular has been impressive this season despite a tough schedule holding the program back with a 10-7 record. That defense can give the Gophers enough problems to keep this a low-scoring game and keep the Under 143.5 in play.
Despite playing the 11th-toughest schedule in terms of opposing offenses, Michigan State has been able to hold teams to just 65.5 points per game, 43rd-best in the country. It’s a defense that ranks 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency and has forced teams into bad shots all season.
The Spartans are holding teams to just 30.3% from three, 50th-best in the country, 45.4% from two, 42nd-best, and 39% from the floor, 17th-best. It’s hard to find a good shot against this team, and that’s despite playing seven teams ranked in the Top 25 of adjusted offensive efficiency, including five of the Top 10.
Michigan State has held Big Ten opponents to 70.3 points per game and has even held the five Top-25 teams its played to 70.6 points per game. The combo of Walker with his quickness and AJ Hoggard with his strength and length gives the Spartans two guards who can help force Minnesota into turnovers. Walker and Hoggard are averaging a combined 2.8 steals per game.
The key will be slowing down Garcia, who is averaging 17.4 points and 7.4 rebounds. The former starter at North Carolina and Marquette could pose a threat due to his size at 6-foot-11, 230 pounds, and the Spartans will rely on the duo of Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper to slow him down.
But even if they struggle to stop Garcia, his lack of help could be enough to stop the Gophers from scoring big. Minnesota is 100th in adjusted offensive efficiency and has only played the 343rd-toughest schedule based on opposing defenses.
The Gophers are shooting 33.7% from three, 187th in the country, and have juiced the scoring stats against mid-majors. While Minnesota is averaging 77.8 points per game, that number drops to 71.6 across six Big Ten games.
Minnesota has survived in the conference thanks to some solid defense to go with Garcia’s scoring. The Gophers have held teams to 67.9 points and given up more than 71 points just five times in 17 games.
In Big Ten games, Ben Johnson’s program is allowing 73.6 points per game and dominating inside the key. The Gophers are only allowing opponents to shoot 46% from two and a respectable 33% from deep.
What has made the Minnesota defense so strong is the work it does down low. The Gophers average 4.9 blocks per game, 36th most in the country, behind Pharrel Payne. Payne is averaging 1.8 blocks while only playing 20.3 minutes per game.
Guards Elijah Hawkins and Mike Mitchell Jr. have also been dangerous with the amount of turnovers they force. The two combine for 3.5 steals per game.
They should be able to give Walker all he can handle. This Michigan State offense relies so heavily on him that if he’s contained — like he was to some extent against Illinois and Nebraska — it will be hard for Sparty to generate consistent points.
My best bet: Under 143.5 (-125 at PROLINE+)
Minnesota vs Michigan State same-game parlay
Under 143.5
Michigan State -6.5 1H
Michigan State has gotten used to winning games defensively with Walker being the only consistent threat for Izzo this season. After losing two straight Big Ten games, Michigan State rebounded against Rutgers in a 73-55 win that showcased how strong the defense can be when it’s on.
“We weren't very good offensively. We were stagnant. We won a game defensively,” coach Tom Izzo said. “It really was our defense, not our offense. So, I think that bodes volumes for our team.”
With the Spartans favored by double digits, it’s tough to trust such an inconsistent team to come through and cover. But, with Walker and this defense, a seven-point first half lead seems manageable.
While Izzo’s team doesn’t have the best record, it’s ranked 18th by KenPom and is 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile Minnesota is 93rd in KenPom ratings and coming off back-to-back losses to Indiana and Iowa in which the Gophers didn’t cover the spread.
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Minnesota vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis
Most books opened with Michigan State as 12 to 13.5-point favorites and have settled in with the Spartans favored by 11 to 12.5. It’s a big ask for them to cover given Minnesota’s been one of the best in the nation ATS.
The Golden Gophers are 14-3 ATS this season, third best in the country, and 4-2 ATS in the Big Ten. Sparty hasn’t been bad ATS at 9-7-1, but have struggled in the Big Ten at 2-4.
Books have held strong since opening with a game total of between 142 and 143.5. The Gophers are 8-9 betting the Over and 2-4 in the Big Ten. Michigan State is also 8-9 betting the Over and 3-3 in the Big Ten.
Minnesota vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+3.25 Units / 15% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Minnesota vs. Michigan State.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Minnesota vs Michigan State game info
| Location: | Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Thursday, January 18, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Minnesota vs Michigan State key injuries
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