The No. 7 seeded Missouri Tigers face off against the No. 2 seed Florida Gators in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals tonight
Although the Gators are red-hot, my Missouri vs Florida predictions think they're laying too many points.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this conference tournament clash on Friday, March 14, with tipoff at 7 p.m. ET.
Who will win Missouri vs Florida?
The spread for this game opened with the Florida Gators as 8.5-point favorites, and early money came in on them, shifting the spread to -9.5.
Both teams boast highly efficient offenses, with the Missouri Tigers ranking fifth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom and the Gators fourth. However, there's a significant gap on the defensive end, where Mizzou sits 68th in adjusted defense and Florida ranks ninth.
The Gators have won nine of their last 10 games and won’t overlook the Tigers since they had a rare home loss against them on January 14. They should win in a revenge spot here.
Missouri vs Florida prediction
My best bet: Missouri +9.5 (-110 at bet365)
Missouri is fresh off an 85-73 victory against Mississippi State last night. That was a closer game than the final score might suggest, with the score tied with four minutes remaining before the Tigers finished on a 16-4 run.
The Tigers have struggled in their own end lately but their highly-efficient offense matches up well against this Gators defense.
The Tigers run off-ball screens at the 16th highest rate in the country while sitting 57th in pick-and-roll frequency. Meanwhile, Florida is outside the Top 250 at defending both of those plays. The Gators also rank 275th in defensive Open 3 Rate, which will be exploited by a Mizzou side that shoots 37.9% from deep.
When these teams previously clashed back in January, the Tigers won 83-82 on the road. They had a 50-34 lead at the half before the Gators fought back, but the final result was hardly a fluke, with ShotQualityBets projecting an 88-86 Mizzou win based on the quality of shots taken and allowed.
Since that previous meeting, the Tigers have the top-rated offense in the SEC, per Bart Torvik, which is especially impressive in a conference that features Auburn, Alabama, and Florida.
While the Gators should win, KenPom is projecting a 6-point victory for them, while Bart Torvik has the gap set at 4.5. That has me backing the Tigers with the points.
Missouri vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Missouri +9.5
Over 162.5
Florida moneyline
Both of these attacks like to push the pace, with Florida ranking 33rd in the country in average possession length (16.2 seconds) and Mizzou sitting 52nd (16.4 secs).
When you factor in both teams' offensive efficiency and Missouri's defensive struggles (90+ points allowed in five of their last seven games), the Over is the play.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Missouri vs Florida odds
Missouri vs Florida live odds
Missouri vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: Missouri +8.5 | Florida -8.5
- Moneyline: Missouri +300 | Florida -380
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 | Under 161.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Missouri vs Florida betting trend to know
Missouri has hit the team total Over in 22 of its last 29 games (+13.69 Units / 40% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Missouri vs. Florida.
How to watch Missouri vs Florida
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Missouri vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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