It's as traditional an ACC game as it gets in a Day 3 affair between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Things have gone mostly to form in Charlotte, and this was the matchup many had already penciled in. UNC's improved play over the last month continued last night with a dominant showing against Notre Dame, where the Tar Heels never trailed and won going away.
Wake Forest will hope to put that momentum to a stop as it looks to make a case for the NCAA Tournament, but it will be a tall task. Read my North Carolina vs. Wake Forest predictions and college basketball picks below.
North Carolina vs Wake Forest prediction
Who will win North Carolina vs Wake Forest?
These two teams have gone in different directions as we enter the postseason. North Carolina is playing well, while Wake Forest is not. The Tar Heels have won seven of their last eight, most convincingly, while Wake Forest has lost three of its previous five. UNC will get the job done today.
My best bet
North Carolina -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
I noted in my preview yesterday how much better the North Carolina Tar Heels have been playing since the start of February.
They've easily been the fourth-best team in the conference by any definable metric, and consider this: for the season, the Tar Heels have ranked 40th overall in 3-point shooting, but over the last two months, they rank second. That hot shooting continued yesterday, and there are no signs it'll stop.
To truly highlight North Carolina's improvements, it's best to isolate it metrically. What happens on BarTorvik if you filter out the priors and just use data from February? A projected spread of 5.2 goes to 7.4. This matches my projections for this game, which made the number -8.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons embody the problems for the second tier of the ACC this season. They've mostly beaten who they're supposed to and mostly lost who they were supposed to. Wake is 2-8 in Quad-1 games and 6-1 in Quad-2 games.
They're the embodiment of an average basketball team, and having what's needed to beat a team playing this well in UNC is not something we have proof of this season.
Outside of the shooting, the offensive rebounding has been the most impressive part of this recent UNC run. The Tar Heels have elected to go with bigger lineups, and it's paid off, as we've seen them jump from the 200s in offensive rebounding percentage to the 100s.
It's a huge accomplishment and one they can flex today. That's because while the Tar Heels' rebounding has improved, Wake's defensive rebounding percentage has gone down the drain, and they'll come into this game ranking 317th in defensive rebounding. That, alone, is enough here for me.
The Wake Forest defense grades out well metrically, but the hot shooting of Jae'Lyn Withers, Ian Jackson, and RJ Davis during this stretch will score against anyone. Ask Duke who they dropped 1.2 points per possession on last week.
You can't offer up second-chance opportunities when the rare misses occur. Unfortunately for them today, that's the most likely equation. I'd play this up to -7.
North Carolina vs Wake Forest same-game parlay (SGP)
North Carolina -5.5
Van Allen Lubin Over 6.5 rebounds
We'll follow the logic of our best bet and pair Van Allen Lubin's rebounds with our best bet.
He's the best offensive rebounder on the UNC roster, with a rate of just over 10%, and he should attack an inferior team on the glass today. It also helps that he's playing his best basketball of the season and will come into today off a double-double against Notre Dame.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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North Carolina vs Wake Forest odds
North Carolina vs Wake Forest live odds
North Carolina vs Wake Forest opening odds
- Spread: North Carolina +5.5 | Wake Forest -5.5
- Moneyline: North Carolina +185 | Wake Forest -225
- Over/Under: Over 148 | Under 148
Odds courtesy of bet365.
North Carolina vs Wake Forest betting trend to know
Wake Forest has cashed the first-half Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.00 units / 17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Wake Forest.
How to watch North Carolina vs Wake Forest
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ACC Network |
North Carolina vs Wake Forest key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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