Oregon vs Colorado Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Buffaloes Trample Pac-12 Final

Goodbyes are bittersweet. On one hand, we get to share a special moment with someone we care about, but on the other hand, the departure naturally comes full of sorrow. With that, we say goodbye to what we’ve known and loved over the years — the Pac-12 Conference.

The stage is officially set for the final Pac-12 tournament bracket game as the No. 4 seed Oregon Ducks (22-11, 12-8 Pac-12) battle the No. 3 seed Colorado Buffaloes (24-6, 13-7) in Las Vegas on Saturday night with the conference championship on the line. 

Dana Altman’s tournament heroics shouldn’t come as a surprise anymore but the Ducks nonetheless shocked No. 1 seed Arizona in the semifinal with a 67-59 win. Colorado didn’t have its best shooting night but simply found ways to win and beat a good team, No. 2 seed Washington State, by a score of 58-82 last night. 

According to conference tournament odds, the Buffaloes are 2.5-point favorites, and the total has been set at 142.5.

Check out my college basketball picks and predictions for Oregon vs. Colorado on Saturday, March 16.

Oregon vs Colorado best odds

Oregon vs Colorado picks and predictions

The Colorado Buffaloes really should be assured an NCAA Tournament berth considering they have no bad losses this season, but that isn’t the case as many bracketologists are slotting them into the “Last Four In” category or another similar anxiety-inducing, non-assuring projection. That makes Saturday’s Pac-12 Championship a huge game, not only because they can lock up an automatic bid, but they can also eliminate a potential bid-stealer in the process. 

That potential bid stealer is the Oregon Ducks, who survived and advanced with a 67-59 win over top-seeded Arizona despite being 12-point underdogs. Dana Altman has worked many a miracle in Eugene and he’s close to cooking up another enchanting run.

The Ducks last cut down the nets in 2019 as a No. 6 seed when they toppled No. 1 seed Washington by 20 points. They made the finals four of the previous six years before that, winning it all two more times. It’s safe to say Altman is comfortable with a tournament setting and his teams often thrive in this environment. 

Oregon first beat UCLA 68-66 in a close second-round game after having a bye in the first round. The Ducks trailed 29-34 at the half and turned on the jets in the second half. 

Then, they fell behind 18-32 to top-seeded Arizona last night and it looked like all was lost early when star big man N’Faly Dante took a hard fall and was carried off the court 62 seconds in the game. No matter, they improbably came back by winning the second half 44-26 while confusing Arizona’s elite offense by using a zone defense. 

They’ve suffered through a lot of injuries this season and are down to eight healthy and active scholarship players. While that hasn’t come back to bite them yet, it might now, with this being the team’s third game in three days. The first two games were both ultimate battles as they had to overcome first-half deficits. 

I’ve been on Colorado as short favorites for each of their first two games in this tournament and the Buffs have rewarded me with two covers. I’m going right back to the well here, as we’re getting the better team laying only 2.5 points despite there still being plenty of motivation left on the table. 

Tad Boyle’s squad has been on fire, winning eight straight games and going 6-2 ATS in that span, including four straight covers. The Buffs are an analytical darling, ranking 23rd in KenPom with a pretty profile. They shoot extremely well, ranking fourth nationally in 3-point percentage (39.7%) and 19th in free-throw percentage (77.3%). In addition to knocking down shots, the Buffs also clean up the boards, ranking eighth nationally in rebounding percentage (55.7%). 

Oregon has a worse analytical profile, ranking 58th in KenPom, and Colorado won both of the regular season matchups. First, the Buffs took care of business with an 86-70 win in Boulder. Then they went to Eugene and won 79-75, which is notable considering they’ve struggled at times on the road and yet still beat the Ducks in their own gym. 

Boyle’s squad has two upperclassmen star players to rely on in big games — guard KJ Simpson and forward Tristan da Silva. They’ll be ready. The role players are playing inspired basketball and five-star freshman Cody Williams is back healthy and on the court. What more could you ask for? 

Give me Colorado against the spread. 

My best bet: Colorado -2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Oregon vs Colorado same-game parlay

Colorado -2.5

Under 142.5

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Both teams have been running a thin rotation and are on their third game in three days. It’s hard for me to envision either side running and gunning for a full 40 minutes, and therefore the Under stands out when handicapping the total. 

Colorado has cashed three straight Unders including the first two rounds of this tournament at T-Mobile Arena. Oregon, meanwhile, has played three straight games that have not eclipsed 140 total points. 

The Buffaloes do a lot of things well offensively, but most notably they thrive when they can attack the rim at will, leading the country in near-proximity attempt rate (Haslametrics). I’m on record as saying that Oregon big man Dante might be the best player in the Pac-12 this season, so there’s a chance that he limits Colorado’s effectiveness at the rim. 

On the flip side, Oregon hasn’t scored more than 68 points in any of its last three games and doesn’t shoot particularly well. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at Colorado -1.5 but has since been bet up to -2.5 across the board. I agree with the movement and am comfortable playing the Buffaloes up to -3.5. Be sure to track any further fluctuations up until tip-off using our college basketball line movement tool. 

Oregon has been disastrous against the spread lately, going 2-8 ATS across its last 10 games. That’s dropped Altman’s team to just 15-18 ATS on the year. Colorado is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games and is slightly profitable at 17-16 ATS on the year. 

The total opened at 144 but has since dropped to 142.5. That’s interesting, considering both teams have played to the Over this year with an identical 19-14 O/U record, and both profile better on the offense end of the floor than the defensive end. 

That being said, I agree with the move, considering I generally like to side with the Under in intense tournament final scenarios. Both teams are running a thin rotation — Oregon due to necessity with a lack of healthy bodies and Colorado due to preference, which has mostly coincided with the recent winning streak. 

Boyle has found a formula that works for him, and it involves only six players seeing meaningful minutes. Simpson played all 40 minutes last night, and da Silva wasn't far behind with 38 minutes. Altman, meanwhile, essentially has a seven-man rotation.

Oregon vs Colorado betting trend to know

Oregon is 1-6 ATS across its last seven games; Colorado is 6-2 ATS across its last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. Colorado.

Oregon vs Colorado game info

Oregon vs Colorado key injuries

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