The WCC Tournament moves into the second round with the No. 9 seed Pepperdine Waves (10-21, 4-14 WCC) facing the No. 8 seed Portland Pilots (12-19, 7-11 WCC) at Orleans Arena.
Portland has been playing its best basketball lately, whereas Pepperdine has been struggling to get to the finish line.
I’m taking the Pilots to stay hot with my Pepperdine vs. Portland predictions and college basketball picks for Friday, March 7.
Pepperdine vs Portland prediction
Who will win Pepperdine vs Portland?
The Portland Pilots will win this game because they’re in better form.
The Pepperdine Waves have the better season-long analytics (241st in KenPom; Portland 262nd), but the Pilots have been much more effective since the start of February (116th in BartTorvik; Pepperdine 273rd).
My best bet
Portland Pilots -2 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
I fancy the Portland Pilots against the spread on Friday night for a few reasons.
First, Shantay Legans’ squad dominated the two regular-season meetings. They picked up an 84-64 win on the road and an 87-67 win at home.
While they may not win every game against the Pepperdine Waves by exactly 20 points, those two data points certainly seem relevant — especially since they both occurred recently (February 1 and February 27).
It’s also difficult to ignore how much better Portland’s analytics have been to end the season. The Pilots rank 157 spots higher in BartTorvik since February 1.
Those aren’t meaningless numbers, either, as they picked up impressive wins over Oregon State and LMU by double digits, blew out Pepperdine twice, and took care of business against Pacific.
The losses to Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s are excusable (two really good teams!), and even the defeat to San Diego isn’t as bad, considering the Toreros are playing their best ball of the season since returning to health.
Portland is led by WCC Freshman of the Year Austin Rapp, who averages 13.7 points and 6.5 rebounds per game and is coming off back-to-back double-doubles to end the regular season.
It’s always nice to have stars to rely on in March, and Rapp pairs with Max Mackinnon (14.4 ppg) to provide two reliable scoring options.
While Pepperdine has been untrustworthy outside of Firestone Fieldhouse (282nd in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric, 4-8 ATS), Portland hasn’t wavered on the road (25th Away From Home, 8-4 ATS).
The Pilots have gotten the best of this matchup for a few years, winning six of the last eight meetings. I’ll bet on them coming away victorious again and covering this short spread.
Pepperdine vs Portland same-game parlay (SGP)
Portland Pilots -2
Over 155.5
Both of the regular season meetings resulted in the Under, so that means another one should come through on Friday, right?
Wrong.
One could’ve used the same logic for the WCC First Round game between San Diego and Pacific, yet it resulted in an easy Over. Both teams like to push the pace: Pepperdine ranks 68th in adjusted tempo since February 1 (BartTorvik) and Portland is right behind at 88th.
There should be plenty of possessions on a neutral court in Las Vegas, which is a good environment for points. Portland was dead set on the Over this year at 18-11 O/U, including a 5-1 O/U run to end the year.
The Pilots have been deadly on offense (64th in adjusted efficiency since February 1 per BartTorvik) but not as efficient on defense (213th).
Pepperdine was 16-14 O/U overall and 3-1 O/U in its last four games.
The Waves have been one of the worst defensive teams in the sport since February 1 (335th in adjusted efficiency per BartTorvik), so it’s hard to see them holding up against a Pilot's offense that has been rolling.
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Pepperdine vs Portland odds
Pepperdine vs Portland live odds
Pepperdine vs Portland opening odds
- Spread: Pepperdine +1.5 (-110) | Portland -1.4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Pepperdine (+105) | Portland (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 (-105) | Under 155.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Pepperdine vs Portland betting trend to know
Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Pepperdine vs. Portland.
How to watch Pepperdine vs Portland
| Location | Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Friday, 3-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Pepperdine vs Portland key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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