The Cinderella run continues in the WCC Championship as the No. 9-seeded Pepperdine Waves face the top-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels in the semifinal at Orleans Arena.
It’s been an unforgettable postseason run for the Waves, who need two more wins to pull off the impossible. The Gaels have been idle to this point after earning a quadruple bye.
I’m giving Moe Odum and the Waves more respect than the oddsmakers with my Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary's predictions and college basketball picks for Monday night.
Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's prediction
Who will win Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's?
The feel-good story ends here — Saint Mary’s will advance. This isn’t exactly news as the Gaels are a massive -5000 favorite after a dominant 17-1 showing in WCC play. They’ve won eight straight in this series, with Pepperdine’s last victory coming in February of 2021.
My best bet
Pepperdine +20 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Pepperdine Waves have been red-hot in the WCC Championship, pulling off three consecutive upset wins to crash the party in the semifinals. While another upset is a longshot against a terrific Saint Mary’s Gaels team, covering the inflated 20-point spread is not.
Point guard Moe Odum has been the story of the tournament, racking up three straight double-doubles:
• vs. Portland: 31 points, 11 assists
• vs. Oregon State: 17 points, 10 assists
• vs. Santa Clara: 19 points, 13 assists
He’s been in control every time he has the ball, epitomizing why “guards matter” in March. Saint Mary’s represents a step-up in competition, but perhaps not the level one might initially expect. Santa Clara was ranked 13th overall and 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency (BartTorvik) since February heading into last night's contest; Saint Mary’s ranks 18th overall and third in defense during that same period.
Asking Odum and sidekick Stefan Todorovic (24 ppg in the tournament) to go nuclear against Saint Mary’s is unfair, but that’s not what we need to cover this spread. We simply need them to continue playing positive basketball, and they’re in such a groove that I’m asking them to do just that and cover this massive spread.
There are a few explanations why Pepperdine was undervalued heading into the postseason. After all, this was a new head coach with an almost entirely new roster, and not one but two disastrous fires heavily disrupted Ed Schilling’s squad’s season.
Were the Waves undervalued enough that a win as a +1600 underdog is on the table in the semis? Probably not — after all, this team was 4-14 in conference play. Still, they’re on a magical run and playing their best basketball of the season, so I’m betting against a blowout.
Saint Mary’s plays at its typical methodical pace (359th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom), which limits possessions and makes a complete obliteration on the scoreboard difficult. Odum will maximize every possession on the other end, which could keep his team within the number.
Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's same-game parlay (SGP)
Pepperdine +20.5
Under 136.5
These teams met twice in the regular season, going Under the total both times by margins of 29.5 points and 16 points.
Bennett will not want to run and gun with Pepperdine. Frankly, he seldom wants to get into that type of game. That’ll be especially true against a Waves team that excels when Odum gets out in the open court, making defenders dance off key and dishing to open teammates.
It helps that Saint Mary’s is the best rebounding team in the nation with a 57.1% rebounding percentage. Paulius Murauskas (8.1 rebounds per game) and Mitchell Saxen (8.0) lead the way, and the Gaels will have a substantial edge on the boards against a Pepperdine squad ranked 226th in rebounding percentage (49.2%).
Expect Bennett to utilize these advantages to his team’s benefit by slowing down the game, tightening up on defense, and dominating the boards. There’s a reason the Gaels are 2-8 O/U in their last 10 games.
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Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's odds
Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's live odds
Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's opening odds
- Spread: Pepperdine +20 | Saint Mary's -20
- Moneyline: Pepperdine +1600 | Saint Mary's -5000
- Over/Under: Over 136 | Under 136
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's betting trend to know
Pepperdine is 3-0 ATS in the WCC Championship with an average cover margin of +15.3 points per game. Find more college basketball betting trends for Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary's.
How to watch Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's
| Location | Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Monday, 3-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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