Purdue vs Illinois Odds, Picks and Predictions: Shootout in Champaign

The best game of the night is a big one in the Big Ten when No. 3 Purdue hits the road to face No. 13 Illinois.

There's a ton at stake for both teams in this one. For the Illini, these types of wins can move you up a seed line. In addition to that, a win here allows them a chance to share the Big Ten regular season title.

For Purdue, this game is about solidifying an awe-inspiring season. The Boilermakers will be hard-pressed to fall out of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a win here, but a loss and share of the conference regular season crown would leave them feeling empty.

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the college basketball odds with our college basketball picks and predictions for Purdue vs. Illinois on Tuesday, March 5.

Purdue vs Illinois best odds

Purdue vs Illinois picks and predictions

There is so much intrigue that surrounds this matchup. Let's start with the obvious.

In the first matchup between these programs, Purdue took care of business at home by five points. That's not the main storyline, though. Illinois managed to keep it close without the services of leading scorer Terrence Shannon Jr., who has averaged over 26 points in his last seven games.

It's also an obvious let-down spot for Purdue. Its win over the weekend against Michigan State clinched at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title, and head coach Matt Painter didn't shy away from celebrating the achievement.

"It's a great accomplishment to win back-to-back Big Ten championships," Painter said. "It's a very difficult task. We're happy for our entire team, but really happy for our seniors."

It's chief among the reasons why Purdue has found itself in the odd position of being an underdog in this matchup. It's the first time they've been in this role in a conference game in nearly a calendar year. The last time was March of 2023 in a double-digit loss to Maryland.

Even with these situational advantages that seemingly point toward the Illini. I'm finding it challenging to pull the trigger on them. My projections make this a one-point win for Purdue, which, in other words, is a true coin-flip from a betting perspective. I'm heading towards a different bet, and that's a bet on points — a ton of them. I'm grabbing the Over of 163.5 as my best bet, a total that I project close to an 8-point edge on.

The Boilermakers have shot lights-out over the past few games, and there's not a ton to indicate that slows down here. While some shooting troubles emerge when you look at their home/away splits, I'm not sure that means much given the advantage it has tonight.

Illinois struggles mightily at defending spot-up shooters, and Purdue has many of them among Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis, Braden Smith, and Lance Jones. All of them have played well over the last month, and all will have their chance to exploit a spot-up defense that ranks fourth-to-last in the Big Ten in points per possession allowed per set. Purdue has faced the three teams that rank behind them five times this season and averaged 89 points in those five games — three matchups came on the road.

On the other side, I expect this Illinois offense to keep humming. Illinois scored 79 on the road against Purdue without its leading scorer. It should be reasonable to expect them to hit the 80-point mark tonight with Shannon back and at home.

Illinois has scored over 80 points in five straight games. If it does it a sixth time tonight, this bet will cash. The backcourt quickness of Illinois should yet again give Purdue issues. In addition to that, Purdue should have trouble containing Illinois's cutting actions. Quincy Guerrier scored a conference-high 18 points in the first matchup, and it shouldn't have been much of a surprise. He's the best cutter on this Illinois team, and Purdue ranks in the bottom 22% of college basketball defending those actions.

Expect points in bundles tonight in this high-octane affair. Both teams have clear avenues to regular scoring, and neither will have any objections to a sped-up tempo.

My best bet: Over 163.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Purdue vs Illinois same-game parlay

Over 163.5

Fletcher Loyer Over 1.5 made 3s

+301 at bet365

Correlating this with a player prop Over is one of my favorite approaches here, and we're doing that with one player that seems a little underpriced in the market.

You can find Loyer Over 1.5 made 3s at plus money, and that's just hard for me to pass up to complete our same-game parlay. Loyer had a midseason shooting slump, but he may have snapped out of it. At his best, Loyer is one of the best shooters in college basketball. He hit multiple 3s in a game against Michigan State for the first time in a month.

Again, given the aforementioned defensive issues, I can't pass up on this number.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Purdue vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis

If forced to choose, I will lean towards Illinois, but nothing to point to suggests a clear edge. It's a great "spot vs. matchup" debate. 

As we've pointed out above, the spot favors Illinois in almost every imaginable way. Purdue has every reason to lower its guard, even if slightly. The natural counter to that is if Purdue can get it going from deep, then not only will Illinois lose to them, but pretty much every team in college basketball will. With that said, I am firmly off the side here. Based on the quality of shots Purdue can get up, I'll see what I can get live. 

We're on the Over tonight. It's our best bet. 

What's holding me back from making Purdue a clear National Championship contender against some of its peers is what it does on the defensive end. We will see that on display tonight with Illinois successfully manipulating Edey in ball screen actions for consistent good looks. On the other end, this Purdue team is deadly from deep, and it will simply get too many open shots tonight to be slowed down. 

Purdue vs Illinois betting trend to know

Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Illinois.

Purdue vs Illinois game info

Purdue vs Illinois key injuries

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