Rutgers vs Maryland Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Two-Way Tepidness

The first game of the Big Ten Tournament bracket could more closely resemble a mid-November Big Ten football game. That may sound harsh, but the Rutgers Scarlet Knights have one of the country’s best defenses, and the Maryland Terrapins barely trail them.

Add in the Terrapins’ fittingly preferred pace of, yes, a turtle and this game should turn into a dull matchup between two of the true Big Ten conference tournament odds underdogs. That may not sound like gripping entertainment, but it does create some betting value.

As we set the stage for March Madness odds, let's doubt any and all points in our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Rutgers vs Maryland on March 13, with tip set for 6:30 ET.

Rutgers vs Maryland best odds

Rutgers vs Maryland picks and predictions

You know those lines that strike you as just flat-out wrong? The total in this game is one of those. And try as you might, it cannot be understood with logic.

So let’s trust logic and dive far Under this total of 126.

That logic could veer into the pair of previous meetings between these two this season, games in which the Knights and the Terrapins combined to go 13-of-65 from beyond the arc, a 20% rate that was certainly worse than their usuals but not by as much as you are inclined to assume. Rutgers shoots 28.9% from deep; Maryland falls short of even that, its 28.4% ranking in the Bottom 10 in the country.

In those two games, the totals were 127.5 and then 128.5. The final scores reached 109 both times.

That logic could also veer into the advanced numbers. Kenpom.com considers the Knights’ defense to be the No. 4 unit in the country, countering an offense that ranks No. 296. The Terrapins’ defense comes in at No. 12, opposite a halfway-decent offense at No. 151.

It could focus on their recent showings. Since Feb. 1, Rutgers’ adjusted defensive efficiency has ranked No. 8, per Barttorvik, paired with an offensive efficiency at No. 259. Maryland’s adjusted defensive efficiency of late lands at No. 27, along with an offensive efficiency of No. 148.

Now, to be fair, both these defensive showings are marginally worse than their season-long numbers, and each of the offenses are a tick better than their season-long looks.

But words like “marginally” and “a tick” were chosen for a reason. Reaching the Over on a total of 126 would require much more than those incremental shifts. Game flow will not do it, not with the Terrapins ranking No. 305 in the country in tempo. To return to the pun from the introductory paragraphs, that turtle-like pace will minimize variance in the opener of the Big Ten Tournament, and minimizing variance will doom the scoring as a whole.

Two of the worst shooting teams in the country — Rutgers ranks sixth-worst in effective field goal percentage, Maryland in the Bottom 50 — would need to find an unprecedented touch to come near a total they have fallen far short of in two meetings this season.

Both the Knights and the Terps have lived on Unders this season, 21 of 31 and 19 of 31 games going Under their totals, respectively. Expect one more.

My best bet: Under 126 (-113 at BetRivers)

Rutgers vs Maryland same-game parlay

Under 125.5

Rutgers +3.5

Jahmir Young Over 20.5 points

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+567 +708 at Caesars

Again, Maryland’s pace should limit variance here, and when the score is this low and oddities will be minimal, if existent at all, then betting on the game to stay within a bucket makes a bounty of sense.

That thought is as simple as saying, neither team will make many shots, so winning by multiple shots will be that much harder. On top of that, there will be few possessions, further knocking the chances of a multi-score margin.

This is where turning to Caesars makes sense. Sacrificing half a point on the total in order to gain the hook on the spread protects the riskier part of this parlay. The total is mispriced, at least as far as any form of logic goes. One thought forgotten above: Target Center in Minneapolis will be nearly empty for this game. A frenzied atmosphere will not dial up intensity. This will have the feel of an October exhibition more than it will a March elimination.

Risking that mispriced total to extend the spread past a bucket thus creates expected value.

Adding in the Over on Jahmir Young’s points prop inflates the payout of this same-game parlay, any player’s Over a counter-intuitive inclusion when focusing on the game’s Under. The logic comes from Young’s penchant for getting to the free-throw line.

Maryland is decent at getting to the line, taking free throws at a Top-15 rate compared to field goal attempts, and Rutgers allows those trips at a higher-than-average rate.

Young averages more than seven free throws per game, making 90.7% of them. If this game remains close, as expected, and Maryland has a slight lead, also as expected, then he may get a few more trips to the line as the Knights try to extend the game. That should propel him past 20 points.

If you worry that those free throws could jeopardize the game’s Under, remember that the two previous meetings between these teams both ended at 109 points. There is a cushion before 125.5.

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Rutgers vs Maryland spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread favoring Maryland by 3.5 is a bit of a surprise only in that the Terps were 2-point dogs on the road at Rutgers on Feb. 25. Both teams have graded out a bit negatively since then, perhaps the Knights a touch worse. Grant Maryland a half-point net gain.

And take off four points for Rutgers’ home-court advantage, one of the steepest in the country. So that totals a 4.5-point swing, which would make Maryland a 2.5-point favorite tonight, not +3.5.

As for the total, the sportsbooks actually tried to open lower, as low as 124.5 late on Tuesday. But the market then bet it up to 126 or 125.5, depending on your sportsbook.

Sometimes the market may be too reliant on numbers. In college football, low totals often see the same result, the math refusing to believe a game could live in the low 30s. But anyone who has watched Big Ten football — looking at you, Iowa and Brian Ferentz — knows the math fails in those moments.

Rutgers vs Maryland betting trend to know

Maryland is 3-6 against the spread as a favorite in Big Ten play this year, including 0-3 in its last three games, as well as its 56-53 outright loss to Rutgers as a 7.5-point home favorite on Feb. 6. Find more college basketball betting trends for Rutgers vs. Maryland.

Rutgers vs Maryland game info

Rutgers vs Maryland key injuries

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