Rutgers vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rutgers Make Wisky Sour in Madison

Remember when the Wisconsin Badgers were not terrible? It was only a few weeks ago that they were ranked No. 6 in the AP poll, standing 16-4 outright and 10-8-2 against the spread. Since then, Wisconsin has gone 2-7 outright and 0-9 ATS. At some point, a bad spell is more than that.

One of those losses came as a favorite against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, proceeding to then lose by 22 points. Instinct might argue the Badgers may look for revenge tonight given the college basketball odds, but given their spiral, even that intangible does not inspire any faith.

Let’s find a way to back the Knights in our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Rutgers vs Wisconsin on March 7, with tip set for 7:00 ET.

Rutgers vs Wisconsin best odds

Rutgers vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

Rutgers routed Wisconsin last month largely because of a disparity in 3-point shooting. While the Knights went 10-of-17 from deep, the Badgers went 5-of-21.

But here’s the thing: That read “largely because of a disparity in 3-point shooting,” not entirely. Rutgers out-rebounded Wisconsin by five including an edge of plus-one on the offensive glass, committed four fewer turnovers, and shot better from inside the arc and at the free throw line, too. The Knights simply outplayed the Badgers. The rout may have been a shooting fluke, but the upset was legitimate.

That sums up Wisconsin’s tailspin. No one else has beaten the Badgers in all of those categories like the Knights did, but seven of the last nine Wisconsin opponents have won at least a majority of those five statistical categories of rebound margin, offensive rebound margin, turnover margin, 3-point shooting, and 2-point field-goal percentage.

Sure, that covers pretty much all of a college basketball game but the point is, the Badgers are not mired in this spiral because of variance. They are mired in it because they have become some version of bad. Even when they win three of those categories against Iowa, they give up 60.5 percent shooting inside the arc to subsequently lose both outright and against the spread.

Three days later, Wisconsin won three of these categories against Maryland and held on to win the game, 74-70. But even with 31 free-throw attempts and an 11-rebound advantage, the Badgers could not cover the -7.5 spread because of 12 turnovers.

Wisconsin has become so inherently flawed, that it cannot be trusted in any moment, certainly not as a double-digit favorite tonight.

My best bet: Rutgers +10 (-110 at DraftKings)

Rutgers vs Wisconsin same-game parlay

Rutgers +9.5

Under 131.5

AJ Storr Under 15.5 points

+401 at FanDuel

Rutgers is a defense-driven threat. The Knights are not knocking on the door of the NCAA tournament, but if they make noise over the next week, it will be because of that defense, No. 2 in defensive efficiency in Big Ten play, per kenpom.com.

Its best trait is forcing a turnover on more than a fifth of possessions. Its next best trait may be its 3-point defense, holding opponents to 34 percent from deep, No. 4 in the Big Ten.

But on the flip side, the Knights cannot hit a 3 to save their lives, 29.3 percent from deep in conference play, No. 13 in the league. Combine those two realities and trust an Under tonight.

While at it, fade any Badgers who take multiple 3s per game. The want is to doubt Max Klesmit’s points prop, available at some spots at 10.5, but it is not widely available so it would be in bad faith to include it in this same-game parlay. But, for what it is worth, Klesmit is Wisconsin’s best shooter, making 1.7 threes per game. Removing one of those will doom his points prop, and Rutgers should remove at least one.

Next up is AJ Storr, shooting just 30.4 percent from deep on the season, making 1.2 threes per game. But he went 0-for-5 in that blowout loss to Rutgers a month ago, the kind of streak that if replicated at all will cost the Badgers dearly again.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rutgers vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis

Rutgers opened late Wednesday night as a 9.5-point underdog, a number that has stuck at +10 at some books. Either number is too large.

The Badgers were favored on the road by 3.5 points a month ago. Sure, adjust the spread by a bit more than six points because of the change in venue — on average, assign a 3-point edge to a home team, meaning a home-and-home has a six-point swing — a bit more than usual because the Knights’ home-court advantage is known to be a bit more aggressive. And at that point, this spread makes sense.

But that would entirely discount Wisconsin’s tailspin. Losing nine straight against the spread, including five since that loss in New Jersey, should have adjusted this spread.

The total opened at 133.5 on Wednesday and fell to 132 early on Thursday, dropping as low as 130.5 at lunchtime.

Rutgers vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

Rutgers’s last three games have all gone Under their pregame totals, by an average of 14.2 points per game. Find more college basketball betting trends for Rutgers vs. Wisconsin.

Rutgers vs Wisconsin game info

Rutgers vs Wisconsin key injuries

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