South Alabama vs Louisiana Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ragin' Cajuns Punch Big Dance Ticket

The South Alabama Jaguars and Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns meet tonight in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line.

The Jaguars have made a run in the SBC Tournament and head into this battle at the Pensacola Bay Center looking to go from 8-seed to conference champion.

The Ragin’ Cajuns entered the tourney as the No. 2 seed, winning a pair of games to get into the title game. ULL has used a methodical offense and sturdy defense to put them into position to dance.

Will South Alabama seal the deal or will Louisiana smash Cinderella’s slipper into a million pieces? I break it all down in my college basketball betting picks below. 

South Alabama vs Louisiana best odds

South Alabama vs Louisiana picks and predictions

The South Alabama Jaguars wrapped up the regular season with a 16-15 record, losing the finale in Lafayette against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns on February 24. As a result, South Alabama entered the conference tournament as a No. 8 seed, and the NCAA Tournament looked like a pipe dream.

Fast forward a week, and USA’s dancing dreams are alive and well, needing just one more victory in Florida’s panhandle with a very good chance of making the NCAA Tournament field for the first time since 2008.

The good news for the Jaguars is proximity, too, as Pensacola Bay Center is less than an hour's drive east on Interstate 10 from Mobile to Pensacola, so we should see a pro-Jaguars crowd.

The Jaguars have rattled off wins over Appalachian State (No. 9 seed), Southern Miss (No. 1) and James Madison (No. 4), while also grabbing three covers.

However, the Ragin’ Cajuns swept the regular-season series with a 79-76 win and cover at Mitchell Center on January 14 and a 74-64 win in Lafayette in the finale, cashing as 4-point favorites.

In that finale, USA shot 43% (24-for-56) from the field, while hitting 31% (4-for-13) from behind the arc, and just 57% (12-for-21) from the charity striple. The good news is that the Jags turned it over just seven times.

Louisiana outrebounded South Alabama at a 39-25 clip in that finale, masking an awful 12% (2-for-16) shooting night from the perimeter. ULL also took good care of the rock, turning it over just eight times. 

ULL will be able to use its size advantage to push around South Alabama again, earning its first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2014.

My best bet: Louisiana +1 (-110 at PointsBet)

South Alabama vs Louisiana spread analysis

The Jaguars have really earned a lot of respect this week, but South Alabama has been hot against the number for a while.

South Alabama is 8-1 ATS in the past nine games overall while going 6-0 ATS in the past six neutral-site games.

While that’s all well and good, Louisiana has won four games in a row and has 23 wins overall. One strong week of play from South Alabama shouldn’t overshadow a much, much better body of work from the Ragin’ Cajuns.

Louisiana had three double-digit scorers during the regular season, with Jordan Brown tearing it up with 19.8 points per game and 8.3 rebounds per game — both team highs. He also hits 57.5% of his field-goal attempts, while also leading the team with 1.3 blocks per game.

South Alabama had just one player averaging more than 10.3 ppg this season, and that was Isaiah Moore. He managed 18.5 ppg with 4.5 apg and 3.2 rpg during the regular season, but the Jaguars have had difficulty with secondary and tertiary scoring. Owen White has answered the bell in the tournament with 18.0 ppg and 4.3 rpg in three games to help out.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have been more consistent overall and they swept the regular-season series, too. Look for Louisiana to block out a pro-South Alabama crowd to avoid the loss, and punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament in style.

South Alabama vs Louisiana Over/Under analysis

The Ragin’ Cajuns had a prolific offense during the regular season, going for 79.1 ppg to rank 27th in the nation. They're also 27th in the country, shooting 37.7% from behind the 3-point line while connecting on 48.5% from the field overall.

If Louisiana has an Achilles’ heel, it has a dismal 68.5% mark from the free throw line, which is among the worst in the country. It leaves a lot of points on the floor to frustrate Over bettors in the past.

Defensively, ULL has struggled, allowing 71.0 ppg, and it isn’t very good guarding against the 3-pointer, either, allowing teams to hit at a 35.1% clip.

South Alabama has had issues offensively, going for 70.8 ppg and it’s not a very good 3-point shooting team at 34.1%. Defensively, USA has been strong, allowing just 65.3 ppg, and it will look to slow things down. The Jaguars also allow just 29.3% from behind the 3-point line. 

Still, I think Louisiana will look to run, trying to take the crowd out of the game. It might not be a slam dunk of an Over, but it will inch over the finish line before the dust settles. 

South Alabama vs Louisiana betting trend to know

Louisiana has covered in four of the past five meetings in this series, while winning three of the past four meetings outright, including both regular-season meetings in 2022-23. Find more college basketball betting trends for South Alabama vs. Louisiana.

South Alabama vs Louisiana game info

South Alabama vs Louisiana key injuries

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