St. John's vs Villanova Odds, Picks and Predictions: Brace Yourself

Legendary head coach Rick Pitino left Iona for a St. John’s Red Storm program with one returning player from last season’s 18-15 record, and the Johnnies' new roster is 10-4 on the season and 2-1 in the Big East.

They hit the road Saturday and meet a Villanova Wildcats side with an identical 10-4 record, hoping to extend their season-long Big East winning streak to four games when they host St. John’s on Saturday afternoon. 

Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks as I preview St. John’s vs Villanova on Saturday, January 6.

St. John's vs Villanova best odds

St. John's vs Villanova picks and predictions

With just one player returning from the 2023 St. John’s roster, few figured Pitino could piece together enough parts to compete in the Big East. 

Boy, oh boy, has Pitino proven the pundits wrong.

The Johnnies are 10-4 and 2-1 to open Big East play. It’s primarily due to the Red Storm buying into Pitino’s classic matchup zone defense he’s deployed since before I was born and his willingness to abandon the matchup zone when necessary and switch to a man-to-man defense that was awesome against Butler.

St. John’s has played eight top 100 KenPom programs and is 4-4 with a 4-4-0 ATS record. They’ve won two straight and four of their last five, including solid home victories over Xavier and Butler, where they allowed a combined 136 points, and the Over/Under was 1-1-0. 

The Red Storm defense has been solid recently, and as I said in the lede, the Johnnies are starting to buy into playing defense. St. John’s is learning that clogging passing lanes and forcing turnovers can lead to buckets, and the Johnnies average 16.9 points from turnovers while being better than average at contesting shots inside the arc while playing slightly below-average defense behind the three-point line.

Villanova made one bucket from inside the arc during the final 10 minutes in their 66-65 home victory over Xavier. The Wildcats have struggled offensively at times over their past four tilts since second-leading scorer Justin Moore was injured on December 5, and his status for Saturday is unknown.

In Moore’s absence, ‘Nova has relied on defense, and they’ve been stout. They’ve allowed 66 points or fewer in three of their previous four, and each of those three great defensive results came against KenPom teams ranked 90 or fewer.

Saturday marks the Johnnie's second true away game in a hostile environment, and Finneran is no joke to play in. The Red Storm plays faster than the D1 average tempo, the Wildcats one of the slowest, and I expect the more experienced Villanova side to dictate play. ‘Nova will play at a snail's pace whenever possible and take up at least 18.6 seconds per possession, keeping the ball out of the hands of the faster and more highly skilled St. Johns offensive players.

Big East basketball is about playing great defense, and we’ll see plenty of that on Saturday. Both programs have improving defenses with offenses that sometimes struggle. Neither team has great shooters, ‘Nova has been a disaster shooting from downtown since Moore’s injury, and the game script likely won’t feature enough possessions for this matchup to exceed 144.5 points.

My best bet: Under 144.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

St. John's vs Villanova same-game parlay

Under 144.5

St. John's +4.5

+262 at FanDuel

I’m expecting a hard-fought Big East-style basketball game on Saturday. Pitino loves the matchup zone, which is still a work in progress. He will switch to man-to-man in the blink of an eye like he did in the victory over Butler, and the Johnnies play stout man defense.

Villanova has played sneaker-squeaking defense over their last four. Without Moore in the lineup, they remain competitive and the only unbeaten team remaining in Big East play because of their defensive focus. 

This parlay correlates with the idea that if the Johnnies play defense as they did during the second half against Butler, they will cover the spread and probably win outright. Villanova relies on the triple for 39% of their offensive production and hasn’t shot it well at all recently and meet some long St. John’s perimeter defenders on Saturday. Offensively, St. John’s is good enough to hang with Villanova, and if their defense turns up, and I believe it will, the Johnnies will cover. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

St. John's vs Villanova spread and Over/Under analysis

DraftKings opened St. John’s as a +5.5 (-110) underdog, moved to +4 (-110), and now is +4.5 at every major US Sportsbook.  FanDuel opened St. John’s +4.5 (-102), and neither the number nor the vig has moved.

+5.5 for the Johnnies is likely gone forever. I don’t believe +4.5 will last long at all unless, of course, the status of Wildcats guard Justin Moore is revealed. If he plays, look for the line to go as high as Villanova's -6, and if he doesn’t, we’ll get ‘Nova for -3 to -3.5. 

FanDuel has the best price for St. John’s (+162), and the NYC-based bookmaker currently offers the best price for Villanova (-202).

I’m leaning toward St. John’s moneyline. Pitino has the Red Storm believing they can beat anyone and went 4-4 thus far and 4-4-0 ATS against top-100 ranked KenPom teams. They lost by four at UConn, and if they bring the Johnnies bring it defensively, they have a real shot at pulling off an away upset.  

St. John's vs Villanova betting trend to know

The Under is 10-0 over their past 10 meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends for St. John's vs. Villanova.

St. John's vs Villanova game info

St. John's vs Villanova key injuries

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