The seventh-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels are the lone undefeated team standing in ACC play, and they’ll look to go 5-0 in the conference as they host the Syracuse Orange on Saturday afternoon.
Though they come in having won six of their last seven, the Orange have yet to win a game at the Dean Dome since moving to the ACC, losing all six visits. In fact, the only visiting building Syracuse has yet to win in since joining the conference 11 years ago is at Chapel Hill.
That’s part of the reason they’re a hefty 12.5-point underdog in the college basketball odds.
Let’s break down this ACC battle as I offer my free Syracuse vs UNC college basketball picks and best bet for Saturday, January 13.
Syracuse vs North Carolina best odds
Syracuse vs North Carolina picks and predictions
Since dropping back-to-back games to UConn and Kentucky, the Tar Heels have ripped off five wins in a row, with a pair of wins against ranked teams — Oklahoma and Clemson — in that mix.
Last time out, they slugged it out with NC State turning a two-point halftime lead into a 67-54 win.
While North Carolina is one of the top-scoring teams in the nation at 82.5 points per game (29th), it’s scored 70 or less in its three, all against ACC competition.
The Heels have been able to win all of those because of their defense. Rated 46th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, UNC held the Wolfpack to a woeful 27.3% shooting from the field, also limiting NC State to a dreadful 2-for-20 from 3-point range.
In their previous 65-55 win over 16th-ranked Clemson, the Tar Heels held the home team to 36.2% shooting and 1-for-18 from 3-point range, a microscopic 5.6% clip.
It was much of the same in their 70-57 win over Pitt, as the Panthers could only muster 30.9% shooting, which included a dismal 5-for-29 mark from beyond the arc.
The Orange are shooting the moneyball at a pedestrian 32% on the year, which ranks 252nd in the NCAA, but they’re an above-average scoring team overall, putting up 76.9 points per game.
They’re coming off a 69-59 win over Boston College to improve to 2-2 in ACC play.
The big question is how Syracuse will handle top-tier competition. While it ranks in the top third of KenPom’s strength of schedule metric (106th), you’ll notice it’s yet to beat a ranked team this season.
Prior to the BC game, the Orange were dumped by 14th-ranked Duke 86-66. In mid-November, they dropped back-to-back games to ranked teams: 11th-ranked Gonzaga 76-57, and then-No. 7 Tennessee 73-56.
If you’re scoring at home, SU is averaging just 60 points per game against ranked competition this year.
Look for the Tar Heels to put the vice grips on the Orange and bring this one Under the total.
My best bet: Under 155 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Syracuse vs North Carolina same-game parlay
Under 155 points
Syracuse +12.5
Despite Carolina’s dominance in this series, having won 12 of the last 14, the Orange have been competitive.
They covered a 4.5-point spread the last time they played, and in each of their last three trips to the Smith Center, the Orange have lost all three games, but have lost each of them by single digits.
If there’s one way SU can stay inside the 12.5-point spread is by forcing turnovers. Against BC, they recorded 17 steals. They lead the ACC in steals at 9.73 per game.
It’s pretty clear that UNC is the cream of the ACC crop, so they’re getting teams’ best shots.
They’ve gutted out the last three wins, shooting 43.6% from the field and 32.8% from 3-point range, both noticeably below their season averages.
The Heels have also won by an average of just 12 points. There’s literally no value in taking Carolina to win outright, but taking all those points and backing the Orange seems like the right play to complete this SGP.
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Syracuse vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened at 12.5 points, and has only moved to a high of 13.5. UNC has covered in nine of their 15 games on the season, while the Orange are 6-8-0 against the spread.
In the last 10 head-to-head matchups, they have alternated covers, the last being Syracuse in a 72-68 loss on Jan 24.
As for the total, books are offering a line as low as 153.5 points to a high of 155.
Both schools are hovering around the .500 mark. Syracuse’s Over record is just 6-7-1. While the Tar Heels have gone Over the total eight times in 15 games this season.
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Syracuse vs North Carolina betting trend to know
Each of North Carolina's last 12 ACC matchups has produced a total of 152 or fewer points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Syracuse vs. North Carolina.
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Syracuse vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Dean Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, January 13, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Syracuse vs North Carolina key injuries
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