The Syracuse Orange and SMU Mustangs close out the second day of the ACC Tournament.
Syracuse got here with a relatively straightforward win over Florida State, never trailing while controlling the whole game. They'll look to keep momentum against SMU, but it won't be easy. The Mustangs still have an outside chance of making the NCAA Tournament, but that would require a run here. Can they start it tonight? Perhaps, but my Syracuse vs. SMU predictions expect a sloppy game.
Read on for my full college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 12th.
Syracuse vs SMU prediction
Who will win Syracuse vs SMU?
SMU is a more balanced, talented, and better-coached team. They also have significantly more routes to scoring regularly than their opponent. The Orange should have been thrilled to pull off the upset yesterday, but the short run ends here. I'll take the Mustangs.
My best bet: First-half Under 70 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
We are seeing an emerging trend of Unders at the Spectrum Center.
Two first-round games went easily Under, and all three would have gone that direction had California and Virginia Tech not gone to double overtime. In addition to that, we started today with an easy Under between Virginia and Georgia Tech. The total closed at 130.5, and even after some late-game fouling, it still couldn't get there. In this matchup, we see more value in the first-half number of 70.
Of course, there's the qualifier for how the Syracuse Orange will react to their second game in two days, but I'm not seeing much of an impact here. That game was relatively comfortable, and any effects on the total would work in our favor. And again, there's the necessary trend of what we've seen play out in the tournament so far that shouldn't be ignored. After all, we just saw a Missouri Valley Tournament with every game of its tournament going Under except one.
Now, there's also the matter of the handicap, and it's a simple one. Both of these teams should do a good job defending the other.
For all of its issues, Syracuse grades out as a decent offense. The Orange are strong in a few areas, but those strengths play directly into the SMU Mustangs' hands.
The Orange are a very rim-focused offense, whether attacking with guard play or using Eddie Lampkin in the post. SMU has held opponents to a very strong .80 points per possession on plays classified as "rim attacks" this season, and has done an even better job on post-ups to the tune of .76 points per possession. The Mustangs can make life difficult for Lampkin, and I don't trust his outside shooting enough to help combat that.
One area they have been good at is containing the dribble, which will be essential against an SMU offense. The Mustangs will get their points elsewhere, likely by wearing down Lampkin as the game carries on, but this number is too high early in the game.
I expected a total somewhere around 65.5 to 66. I would play this number down to 67.5. The environmental aspects and the Xs and Os on the floor make it a great look.
Syracuse vs SMU same-game parlay (SGP)
1H Under 70
Eddie Lampkin Over 10.5 rebounds
With a lower-scoring game than expected comes an opportunity for more rebounds. I'll give the nod to Lampkin here to do his part on the backboard, even though it won't be enough to win.
The fifth-year senior looks like a player who doesn't want his college career to end as we head down the stretch. He exceeded this number in three of his last five games, and tonight, with the stakes so high, we would like him to make it four out of the previous six.
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Syracuse vs SMU odds
Syracuse vs SMU live odds
Syracuse vs SMU opening odds
- Spread: Syracuse +8.5 (-110) | SMU -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Syracuse +320 | SMU -400
- Over/Under: Over 152 (-110) | Under 152 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Syracuse vs SMU betting trend to know
Syracuse has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 19 of their last 33 games (+3.10 Units / 8% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Syracuse vs. SMU.
How to watch Syracuse vs SMU
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Syracuse vs SMU key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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