The Purdue Boilermakers were the favorites to advance past whichever team they faced in Round 2 of the Big Ten tournament. And with the USC Trojans needing double overtime to make it to this matchup, Purdue has an even larger edge in Indianapolis tonight.
The Boilermakers’ Top-10 offense will put up plenty of points in their postseason debut, which is where you’ll find my USC vs. Purdue predictions and college basketball picks looking below.
Who will win USC vs Purdue?
Purdue is pegged as a hefty favorite with the outright odds giving the Boilermakers an 84% chance of winning this game and advancing to the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament.
USC vs Purdue prediction
My best bet: Purdue team total Over 79.5 (-120 at bet365)
The USC Trojans get little down time after playing two extra periods in a wild win over Rutgers in Round 1 while the Purdue Boilermakers have been off since last Friday. On top of that, West Lafayette is only an hour away from Indianapolis, which will have “Boiler Up!” ringing throughout Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Regardless of how much gas the Trojans have left in the tank after playing 50 minutes of basketball last night, this USC defense wasn’t pushing back on Purdue.
The Trojans entered the postseason with one of the worst defensive ratings in the conference and that metric had slipped further in the home stretch of the schedule. USC won just once in the final seven regular season games, allowing opponents to average almost 82 points against during that slide.
Even before the bottom fell out on USC’s defense, it was squashed 90-72 inside Mackey Area on February 7 (albeit without Desmond Claude in action). That final score blew away the closing total of 145 points.
The Boilermakers opened the game with a blistering pace, shooting 67% from the floor in the opening 20 minutes (scoring 48 points in the first half) and finished with 90 points on 50% shooting due to poor outing from the perimeter (6-for-26 on 3-pointers).
Honestly, that’s a bit of a weird outcome considering Purdue didn’t pick up points the way it usually does.
The Boilermakers are one of the better outside shooting teams in the Big Ten, ranked ninth nationally in 3-point percentage (38.6%). They also only scored 10 points off turnovers in the first meeting with USC — well below their conference average of 16.9 POTVs (most in Big Ten).
On the other hand, the Trojans have been burned by turnovers this season. They cough up the ball almost 13 times per game on the year and those errors have been amplified in recent outings, averaging more than 16 turnovers the past five games. USC gives up the most points off turnovers in the conference, including 21 turnovers for 31 points against in the 2OT win over Rutgers on Wednesday.
When the Boilermakers are killing USC in transition, they can also employ the No. 1 offense in the Big Ten in the halfcourt. Purdue ranks Top 20 in several offensive playsets at ShotQualityBets, including Top 5 in finishing at the rim and 3-point shooting — all areas in which the Trojans struggle to defend.
Game projections call for a high-scoring night from the Boilermakers, even before adjusting for USC’s insane turnaround and road-heavy sked (this will be the Trojans sixth away game in the past nine contests). My number comes out to an 83-point performance from Purdue.
USC vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
Purdue team total Over 79.5
Trey Kaufmann-Renn 20+ points
Fletcher Loyer 2+ threes
The Boilermakers will take advantage of a gassed USC squad, scoring easy buckets in transition and knocking down 3-pointers.
Kaufmann-Renn is projection for 20 or more points against one of the softest defenses in the Big Ten.
Loyer will let it fly from outside and hit two or more long-range looks. He went 2-for-7 from deep in the first meeting with USC.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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USC vs Purdue odds
USC vs Purdue live odds
USC vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: USC +9.5 | Purdue -9.5
- Moneyline: USC +375 | Purdue -500
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 | Under 149.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
USC vs Purdue betting trend to know
Purdue has been favored by 9+ points nine times this season, scoring 80+ points in seven of those contests (averaging 84 ppg). Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Purdue.
How to watch USC vs Purdue
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
USC vs Purdue key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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