Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Seniors Take Center Stage

The Kentucky Wildcats look to close out their home schedule with a victory tonight when they play host to the Vanderbilt Commodores. Our college basketball odds have the Wildcats overwhelmingly favored to add another notch in the win column.

Jerry Stackhouse may well be in his final days as Vanderbilt head coach after yet another double-digit defeat Saturday, and he’ll remember the 32-point beatdown at the hands of Kentucky from just a month ago. But with his team having just three wins in conference play, only one of which has come away from home, it’s unlikely he’ll enjoy a different outcome tonight.

John Calipari has to be enjoying his team winning five of its last six, including big wins over Auburn and Alabama, as Kentucky seems to be figuring things out just in time for tournament play. The Wildcats pulled out a comeback win against Arkansas on Saturday and breached the 100-point mark for the fourth time in conference play. 

Our college basketball picks and predictions for Vanderbilt vs Kentucky on Wednesday, March 6 explain why Senior Night should be a highly entertaining affair for the blue-clad contingent on hand. 

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky best odds

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky picks and predictions

The Kentucky Wildcats have dropped 90+ points in 12 of their last 15 games played at Rupp Arena. The players, as many have done over the years, thrive in that atmosphere and feed off the rabid fanbase's energy.

Senior Night at Rupp Arena is something the Big Blue Nation holds dear, but under Calipari, there haven’t been as many of those as the fans have been used to under coaches past. Many of his players are one-and-done type athletes, and his seniors have quite often been role players who weren’t prone to putting up big numbers.

But Antonio Reeves isn’t a player Calipari recruited out of high school, and the senior guard leads the team in scoring. That makes Wednesday night a bit of a celebration the likes of which Rupp hasn’t seen in a while. And it’s why I’m backing the Wildcats to once again go off and flirt with the century mark against the Vanderbilt Commodores. 

Reeves is one of the rare players to score 1,000 or more points at multiple schools, and he’s dropped 20+ in five straight games and 13 of his last 19. That includes scoring 24 at Vanderbilt a month ago as the Wildcats rolled to a 109-77 win on the road.

The Wildcats made 15 3-point baskets in that game, led by Reeves making six of his nine long-range efforts. Rob Dillingham came off the bench to bury four of his own, as Kentucky did whatever it wanted at the offensive end and racked up 22 assists.

Now, they return home, and Vanderbilt has even less to fight for now than it did in that contest. The Commodores rank in the Bottom 10 teams in college hoops in 3-point defense, and 275th in 3-point rate against. They rank 290th in eFG%, are middle of the pack in rebound rate, and have given up 53 made threes in their last five games.

Kentucky’s making 3-pointers at the third-best rate in college basketball, and I expect Reeves to get plenty of minutes tonight. He, Dillingham, and Reed Sheppard — a player who knows all too well what Senior Night at Kentucky is all about, given his lineage — will get plenty of chances to bury Vanderbilt from deep, and push Kentucky's point total into the stratosphere.  

FanDuel’s got the best price for Kentucky to score 90+, with -106 odds vs. -115 or shorter everywhere else. I’m not only jumping on that number, but I’m making it a two-unit play. Get it for -110 or better while you can, and settle in as the Wildcats and Reeves prepare for postseason play with a celebration.  

My best bet: Kentucky team total Over 89.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Kentucky team total Over 89.5

Antonio Reeves 20+ points

Reed Sheppard Over 4.5 assists

+305 at DraftKings

We can’t talk about Reeves having a big performance on Senior Night, and then not take him to continue his 20+ point-scoring streak. His line has already moved from 19.5 to 21.5 in some places as of early Wednesday morning, so we’ll simply take him to hit 20 once again.

Sheppard has been a facilitator in Kentucky's last three games, with 5+ assists in each contest and 18 in total. With the Wildcats likely getting plenty of chances for open looks, and having 22 assists in the first meeting, there will be opportunities to drop dimes and we’ll back him to get 5+ once again. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread of -17.5 for Kentucky dropped quite a bit overnight after Kentucky opened as a 19.5-point favorite late Tuesday afternoon. While Vanderbilt has lost 13 games in conference play, it's only been beaten by 18 or more in three of those defeats.

This is the largest spread in a game between these two teams since before COVID, and the Commodores have covered the last three times they were double-digit dogs to the Wildcats. They’ve also covered in their last two road games, both times as double-digit underdogs, but are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight overall. 

Kentucky was favored by 13 against Arkansas this weekend, trailed much of the game, and failed to cover as it won by nine. That said, the Wildcats are 4-2 ATS in their last six.

If you’ve blindly bet the Over in Kentucky games this season, you’re doing extremely well, and the Over is a strong play here in correlation to our Best Bet. The public agrees, having already moved it up a point from the 159.5 opening number.

Vanderbilt has seen the Under go 4-1 in its last five games, and the Under is 22-13 in its last 35 games. But Vandy’s first meeting with Kentucky featured 185 points to go well past the 151.5 total. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have had three straight Overs, and seven in their last 10 games. On the whole, the Over has hit in 23 of Kentucky’s last 32 games. 

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky betting trend to know

Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 32 games (+13.10 Units / 37% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky.

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky game info

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky key injuries

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