Vanderbilt vs LSU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tigers Back on the Hunt in Nashville

The nightcap of the second round of the SEC Tournament in Nashville will see the No. 14 LSU Tigers face off with the No. 6 Vanderbilt Commodores on Thursday night. 

LSU defeated Vanderbilt, 84-77, at home on February 22. Vanderbilt finished the regular season at 18-13 overall and 11-7 in SEC play. The Commodores won eight of their final nine games of the regular season.

Can Vanderbilt avenge its lone loss since the start of February? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for LSU vs. Vanderbilt on March 9 to find out.

Vanderbilt vs LSU best odds

Vanderbilt vs LSU picks and predictions

If not for that loss to LSU two weeks ago, Vanderbilt may be in contention for an NCAA tournament bid. It has been one of the hottest teams in the SEC, defeating Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, and Mississippi State in the process. Vandy has climbed all the way up to 82 in the NET rankings and 80 in KenPom. 

The Commodores did take a big hit late in the season, losing senior leader Liam Robbins for the season due to an injury in the Kentucky game. Robbins averaged 15.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.2 blocks per game this season. He had a massive 23 points, 11 rebounds, and nine blocks in the game against LSU. 

Without Robbins, LSU big man K.J. Williams is going to have a great opportunity to carry this LSU team to another upset. Williams put up 18 points, eight rebounds, four assists, and three steals last night against Georgia. He had 35 points and 10 rebounds in the last matchup with Vandy. 

Vanderbilt went 2-3 in its five games without Robbins this season and averaged 65.0 points per game, below its season average of 72.0. It also allowed 79.2 points per game, well above its season average of 71.7 It was also outrebounded by an average of 38.2-25.6 in those five games. 

LSU already averages more rebounds than it allows and now it will get a boost from not having to face Robbins. The Tigers outrebounded Georgia 40-35 last night, getting a boost of 11 boards from 6-foot-2 guard Trae Hannibal and 10 rebounds from freshman Shawn Phillips off the bench. They should have a massive advantage on the boards tonight. 

I certainly expect the Tigers to keep the game very close to the end. Their advantage down low will be tough for the Commodores to overcome and Williams has the opportunity to carry LSU to another tournament win. 

My best bet: LSU +4.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Vanderbilt vs LSU spread analysis

Vanderbilt went 1-2 in neutral site games this season with losses to Saint Mary’s and NC State and a lone win over Fresno State. It also went 5-6 in true road games, thanks to winning three of its final four road games. However, that one loss was to this LSU squad. 

Another area where LSU can take advantage is in the turnover battle. The Tigers only had five giveaways against Georgia in the opening round. Vanderbilt ranks 344th in the country, forcing only 10.1 turnovers per game. LSU will not only get a lot of chances to score from rebounding but will also get more possessions with at least getting a shot off. 

The Tigers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five neutral site games. The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these two programs. LSU was a 2.5-point underdog in the last matchup and won straight up by seven points. 

If LSU protects its possessions, it will have an excellent opportunity to pull off another upset. The Tigers should be able to do just that and get plenty of scoring chances between post-ups and second-chance opportunities. 

Vanderbilt vs LSU Over/Under analysis

Prior to last night’s Under, the previous five LSU games went Over the total. The previous game against Vandy went well Over the total of 140, with 161 total points scored. We already mentioned how much higher scoring the Vandy games are without Robbins. 

The Over is 13-3 in the Tigers’ last 16 games against a team with a winning straight-up record and 3-1-1 in their last five games following a straight-up win. The Over is 23-10 in the Commodores’ last 33 games following an ATS win and 5-2 in their last seven games overall.

There is a solid chance that LSU can reach 80 points here. I would not count out Vanderbilt’s chances of reaching a similar number, with the excellent coaching job Jerry Stackhouse has done this season. I would certainly lean toward the Over. 

Vanderbilt vs LSU betting trend to know

The Over is 3-1-1 in the Commodores’ last five neutral site games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. LSU.

Vanderbilt vs LSU game info

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