The SEC college basketball tournament tips off Wednesday and everyone is invited to the party as conference bottom-feeders Texas A&M and Vanderbilt battle in the lone first-round matchup with the winner earning a date with No. 5 seed Florida.
Texas A&M and Vanderbilt went a combined 5-21 in SEC play this season but never faced off. So, who will cover the spread, and will either be able to make a Cinderella-like run in the SEC tourney?
Here are our best free Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Wednesday, March 10, with tipoff at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M odds
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonVanderbilt bounced from a -1.5 opener to -1 and back to -1.5 at TwinSpires. As of 4 p.m. ET, point-spread ticket count is almost dead even, with a slight edge to Vandy at 52 percent, but the Commodores are taking 73 percent of money. The total dipped from 133 to 131, then edged up to 132, with 75 percent of tickets/60 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameVanderbilt Commodores vs Texas A&M Aggies betting preview
Injuries
Vanderbilt: Cashius McNeilly G (Out).
Texas A&M: Tyrin Lawrence G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 9-1 in Texas A&M's last 10 neutral site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Texas A&M.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Texas A&M had a better winning percentage than Vanderbilt in SEC play, but that’s in part because the Aggies played six fewer conference games than the Commodores.
Texas A&M didn’t play a game from Jan. 30-March 3 due to COVID-19 protocols and the Aggies have dropped both games since returning from their extended layoff. Overall, Texas A&M has lost seven of its last eight conference games, with the lone win being a one-point victory against Mississippi State.
On the other side, Vanderbilt has played relatively well recently. Before Saturday’s 56-46 loss to Mississippi, the Commodores had won two of their last three thanks to an offense that isn’t half bad. Vandy ranks a respectable 70th in adjusted offensive rating, putting up 71.8 points per game.
That offense has allowed the Commodores to become a decent bet. Prior to the game at Ole Miss, Vandy went 7-0-4 ATS in its previous 11 games. Vanderbilt is led by sophomore Scotty Pippen Jr., who has averaged team-highs of 20.6 points and 4.9 assists across 20 games.
The question in this one is whether or not Texas A&M will be able to keep up? The Aggies are the worst shooting team in the SEC, resulting in a conference-low 64.1 points per game. With the Aggies still getting back into the swing of things and their aversion to scoring, it's hard not to like Vandy in this spot.
PREDICTION: Vanderbilt -2 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
With an offense that ranks 176th in adjusted offensive efficiency, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the total has closed at 132.5 or lower in six of Texas A&M’s last eight games with a low point of 124.5. And those low numbers shouldn’t deter Under bettors, with the Under going 5-1 in those six contests. In fact, the Aggies have been one of the best Under bets in college hoops this season, going 5-12 O/U (70.6 percent).
While the Commodores clearly have the better offense in this matchup, it doesn’t mean that they aren't susceptible to an off-shooting night. Heck, they only have three conference wins, so they’ve had more than one. As a result of that inconsistency, the Under has cashed in each of the Commodores' last three games and has gone 7-3 over their last 10 contests. We’re betting the trend continues in this matchup.
PREDICTION: Under 134.5 (-110)
Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M betting card
- Vanderbilt -2 (-110)
- Under 134.5 (-110)
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