The Battle 4 Atlantis tournament final is set, with the Memphis Tigers taking on the Villanova Wildcats in the Bahamas.
Both teams worked for this berth in the tourney final, as Memphis got past the 20th-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks 84-79, and Villanova needed OT to bounce the 14th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels 83-81.
‘Nova is a slight 3-point betting favorite in the college basketball odds.
Read on for my free college basketball picks and best bet for Friday, November 24.
Villanova vs Memphis best odds
Villanova vs Memphis picks and predictions
Memphis’ David Jones was just too much for Arkansas to handle Thursday.
The senior forward dropped a career-best 36 points on 10-for-14 shooting from the field, including 4-for-8 from downtown. Jones also added five steals, four boards, and two assists.
That’s the fifth-straight win to start the year for Penny Hardaway’s Tigers, who are scoring 82.2 points per game, powered by 48% shooting from the field, and a blistering 39.2% from 3-point range.
They’re ranked 27th overall in KenPom, including 29th in offensive efficiency. While they rank 31st in defensive efficiency, they’re giving up 70.6 points per contest, which ranks 184th in the NCAA.
The Wildcats had their own breakout performance in the other semi-final bracket, as Eric Dixon set his career high with 34 points to go along with 10 boards to outlast Carolina.
Justin Moore netted five of his 16 points in OT, adding two boards and two assists, to bring ‘Nova to 5-1 on the year.
Like Memphis, Villanova is a well-balanced unit, ranking 19th overall in KenPom, and 13th in offensive efficiency. The ‘Cats average 78.3 points per game, shooting it at 43.7% from the field and 34% from distance.
They’re a solid 44th in defensive efficiency, giving up 64.3 points per game, and holding schools to a 38.1% mark from the field.
In a tilt between two evenly matched teams, can Memphis speed up the Wildcats a little more than North Carolina did? Memphis is 47th in tempo, which looks like lightning compared to ‘Nova’s plodding tempo, checking in at 320th.
The semifinal was played at a Big East pace, with the teams falling under the 146 total by 10 points, but went Over because the game extended into OT.
Each of Villanova's last seven games against the American Athletic Conference have produced a total of 142 or fewer points.
I think they slug it out in the Bahamas.
My best bet: Under 146 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Villanova vs Memphis same-game parlay
Under 146 points
David Jones Under 15.5 points
Memphis Under 71.5 points
Let’s expand our betting outlook, so we can add some juice and build a same-game parlay.
Jones and Dixon should be in each other’s grills for most of the game, but it’s likely neither can maintain the torrid pace they set a day earlier.
We’re going to target Jones here, only because he hasn’t been this high a volume scorer. Prior to the last game, he had topped 20 points just one other time this season, hanging 22 on Alabama State, and averaging just 14.5 points per game.
With St. John’s last season, he topped 20 points in his first two games, then proceeded to top that mark once in the last 29 games, averaging 13 points over that stretch.
With games on back-to-back days, I see Jones reverting back to his normal self, and Under this total.
And that’s part of the reason why Memphis will struggle to score against the Wildcats, and fall Under that 72.5 team total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Villanova vs Memphis spread and Over/Under analysis
A one-point underdog in each of the last two games, Memphis finds itself a 3-point ‘dog heading into the tournament final.
The Tigers are 3-2-0 against the spread. Last season, they were 5-3-0 ATS in neutral site games.
Villanova has now found itself the betting favorite in six of seven games this season — its only win as an underdog was Thursday’s victory over the Tar Heels, who were favored by 2.5 points.
The Wildcats are 4-2-0 ATS on the season, and while they’ve been a perfect 2-0-0 ATS in the Bahamas this season, ‘Nova was just 2-5-0 in neutral site games last year.
The 146 total is the lowest line that the Tigers have faced this season, and just the second game that oddsmakers have kept the figure in the 140s.
Memphis has gone Over in three of five games this season, and the Over has gone 1-1 in Nassau.
Conversely, this is the second-highest total set on a Villanova game this season, and the Wildcats have been cashing on the Over so far, with a 4-2-0 mark in six games.
They have cruised past their total in their previous two Battle 4 Atlantis games.
Villanova vs Memphis betting trend to know
Memphis has allowed 67 or fewer points in each of its last seven day games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue. Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. Memphis.
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Villanova vs Memphis game info
| Location: | Imperial Arena, Nassau, BA |
| Date: | Friday, November 24, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Villanova vs Memphis key injuries
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