The No. 8 Oregon Ducks look to remain perfect as they return from a bye week to face the UCLA Bruins in Week 5’s “Big Ten After Dark” showdown.
The Ducks have dominated this matchup recently, and my Oregon vs. UCLA predictions anticipate we'll see more of the same on Saturday.
Read all about it in my college football picks for September 28.
Oregon vs UCLA prediction
My best bet
Oregon -25.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The UCLA Bruins have looked utterly inept in the first year of the Deshaun Foster era.
UCLA’s sputtering offense has mustered just 15.3 ppg, failing to score more than 17 points in any of its first three contests. Quarterback Ethan Garbers has thrown more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three) while completing 56.7% of his passes, and he’s operating behind a moribund offensive line performing well below a Power 4 level.
The Bruins pass a lot (third in pass rate) but don’t do it well (115th in passing success rate). The line can’t block, and therefore, the ground game has been non-existent, averaging 60.3 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry.
Oregon’s defense hasn’t been perfect this year, but it still ranks 22nd in success rate despite one of its games coming against the game-wrecking force that is Ashton Jeanty and the Top 10 efficiency offense he leads. The Ducks’ main weakness has been on the ground (119th in EPA per rush, 131st in rushing explosiveness), but that feebleness is completely negated in this matchup.
On the flip side, Dillon Gabriel leads a potent Oregon offense ranked 14th in success rate and is capable of beating you both through the air and on the ground.
I’ve seen talk about how UCLA’s defense is performing well this season, but I simply couldn’t disagree more. The only reason the Bruins are allowing under 30 ppg (29.7) is because they play at a slow pace offensively (104th in tempo).
Ikaika Malloe’s defense will be severely outmatched in the secondary (112th in EPA per pass, 131st in passing success rate) and lacks any resemblance of a pass rush, which is a recipe for disaster against good offenses.
Oregon vs UCLA same-game parlay (SGP)
Oregon -25.5
Under 55.5
Dillon Gabriel 3+ passing touchdowns
Gabriel 275+ passing yards
Jordan James 80+ rushing yards
UCLA seems content to sit on the ball offensively and snap the ball as seldom as possible to shorten the game. That’s the Bruin’s best chance at an upset, and it’d be shocking if they didn’t take that approach on Saturday, as the staff knows its players will be badly outmanned.
While that might keep the game Under the total, it won’t stop Oregon’s offense from having a successful day at the office. Gabriel is a Heisman hopeful, completing 84% of his passes for 9.7 yards per attempt while averaging 304.7 passing yards per game, and this is a beautiful matchup.
UCLA is expected to be shorthanded along the defensive front. At defensive tackle, Keanu Williams is out for the year, while Sitiveni Havili-Kaufusi, along with defensive end Jacob Busic, missed practice this week.
Oregon running back Jordan James has rushed for at least 86 yards in every game this year and is running behind a good offensive line (23rd in line yards, 30th in stuff rate) performing better after some early-season shuffling.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oregon vs UCLA odds
Oregon vs UCLA live odds
Oregon vs UCLA opening odds
- Oregon vs. UCLA spread: UCLA +24
- Oregon vs. UCLA moneyline: Oregon -3,000 | UCLA +1,300
- Oregon vs. UCLA Over/Under: Over 55.5 | Under 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oregon vs UCLA spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oregon has performed well on the road, covering the spread in five of its last six away games.
- UCLA doesn’t have much of a home-field advantage, going 0-4 ATS in its last four games at the Rose Bowl. With this being such a late kickoff (8:00 p.m. local time), it’ll likely be a fairly tame crowd that gives the visitors no fits at all.
- UCLA has been an Under team through and through, cashing the Under in nine of its last 12 games.
Oregon vs UCLA betting trend to know
Oregon is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 meetings with UCLA. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs UCLA.
Oregon vs UCLA game info
| Location: | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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