Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Demon Deacons Headed to Semis

The Pittsburgh Panthers are one of the handful ACC programs sitting on the March Madness odds bubble heading into postseason. They take on another conference rival trying to impress the selection committee — the Wake Forest Demon Deacons — in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament on Thursday.

Pitt has played its best basketball heading into the playoffs, bringing a three-game winning streak into this Round 3 matchup. The Panthers are a cash cow against the college basketball odds, going 9-2 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Wake Forest advanced through to this No. 4 vs. No. 5 showdown with a steady win over Notre Dame on Tuesday. The Demon Deacons clamped down on defense in the second half to secure a 72-59 win as 9.5-point faves. 

I break down the ACC Tournament odds for this quarterfinal clash and give my free college basketball picks for Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh on March 14.

If you're looking for more NCAAB coverage, be sure to also check out our Conference Tournament odds page!

Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh best odds

Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions

A ticket to the Big Dance is very much up for grabs when Pittsburgh and Wake Forest clash in the ACC tournament quarterfinals. Bracketologists have these two programs currently projected on the NCAA bubble, but for different reasons. 

The Demon Deacons have resume wins on their record, including victories over Clemson and Duke in conference play and a non-conference win against Florida. But, Wake Forest has shown a terrible tendency to play down to the opposition, which has led to missed opportunities along the way.

As for Pitt, the Panthers are one of the hottest teams in the country after winning nine of their last 11 contests. That streak, however, is void of any real head-turning victory as Pitt beat up on the bottom of the ACC standings.

Even the season-ending win over NC State — which has looked good in the ACC tourney — comes with an asterisk, as the Wolfpack lost leading scorer D.J. Horne just 12 minutes into that 81-73 triumph. That 11-game stretch of schedule also includes a 33-point drubbing at the hands of Wake Forest on Feb. 20.

The Panthers’ offense surged during this strong finish but saw them face defenses ranked No. 7, 10, 11, 12, and No. 15 in the ACC over their final five wins. The Deacs rank Top 5 in defensive efficiency for the conference and allow just 70 points against per contest. 

Wake Forest was able to throw a wrench in Pitt’s offensive game plan in their last meeting, limiting the Panthers to 29% shooting. Head coach Jeff Capel runs a lot of motion, with the Panthers relying on screens, pick-and-roll, and cutting to create space. 

The Demon Deacons do a good job keeping pace with that movement and switching on defense. They’re ranked Top 20 in points per play allowed vs. cuts and screens and 74th in defending the pick-and-roll, according to ShotQualityBets.

Wake Forest is already in “tourney mode” coming off Wednesday’s strong defensive effort against the Fighting Irish and Pitt could have trouble picking up where it left off, with a two-round bye putting the Panthers on ice for five days.

Game models call for a Wake Forest win, with some as close as one point and others projecting as much as a six-point difference. I’ll pass on the point spread and take the Demon Deacons to win outright against a No. 4 seed that is being overrated by the market.

My best bet: Wake Forest moneyline (-119 at Pinnacle)

Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay

Wake Forest moneyline

Hunter Sallis 2+ made threes

Blake Hinson 2+ made threes

+260 at bet365

I have a tough time believing Pitt’s validity as a No. 4 seed and Wake Forest is a step up in competition compared to the Panthers recent run of foes.

Sallis scored 17 points in the first meeting with Pitt, including going 3-for-3 from beyond the arc. He hit two triples in the win over Notre Dame yesterday.

Hinson is projected to put up more than three triples today. He did, however, struggle vs. the Deacs last time out, so we’ll stick to 2 or more from distance.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh spread and Over/Under analysis

Following Wake Forest’s win over Notre Dame, oddsmakers opened the Demon Deacons as slight 1.5-point favorites for Thursday’s quarterfinal tilt with Pitt. According to Covers Consensus, 56% of picks are taking the points with the Panthers.

These ACC rivals split their two regular season matchups, but the Deacs did win the most recent run-in, blowing out Pitt 91-58 as 5.5-point home favorites on February 20. Wake Forest shot a blistering 61% from the floor while the Panthers finished shooting a chilly 29%.

Since blowing the doors off Pittsburgh, Wake Forest scored resume wins over Duke and Clemson but stumbled in between with a three-game losing skid bookended by those victories. The Demon Deacons looked sound vs. Notre Dame in the ACC tournament opener, checking the Irish to only 29% shooting success.

Thursday’s Over/Under total opened between 146.5 and 147 points — a 10-point leap from Wake Forest’s closing total of 136.5 against Notre Dame. That number has slimmed to as low as 145 on Thursday morning, with Covers Consensus showing 65% of picks on the Over.

The Feb. 20 meeting between these schools closed at 145 points, with the final score going Over thanks the to Demon Deacons doing the lion’s share of the scoring.

On the season, the Panthers went 17-12-2 Over/Under, including 7-5-1 O/U away from home. Pitt finished 5-2-1 O/U in the closing eight games of ACC play, including that game at Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons played Under the closing total in the Round 2 game with Notre Dame, which is just the second Under result in the past seven games overall. Wake Forest sees a significant scoring slide away from home — an 11.5-point decrease on road/neutral courts.

Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know

Pittsburgh is 16-4-1 ATS as a favorite but just 3-5-2 ATS when set as the betting underdog this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh.

Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh game info

Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic