Tre Donaldson’s coast-to-coast buzzer beater sent the Michigan Wolverines to the Big Ten tournament final, but his playmaking put UM in that position.
The junior guard has been at the wheel of this Wolverines attack, which has sprung to life in the postseason and played its way into a championship showdown with the Wisconsin Badgers.
My Michigan vs. Wisconsin predictions expect more ball distribution from Donaldson this afternoon. Catch the breakdown in my college basketball picks for March 16.
Who will win Wisconsin vs Michigan?
Game models and oddsmakers give the nod to Wisconsin. Forecasts call for a Badgers victory — some projections by as many as six points — while the outright price gives Wisconsin an implied win probability of 64%.
Wisconsin vs Michigan prediction
My best bet: Tre Donaldson Over 3.5 assists (-120 at bet365)
The Michigan Wolverines backed into the postseason on a three-game losing skid, with the offense sputtering against some of the Big Ten’s top defenses. Michigan mustered less than 67 points per game during that slide.
However, between a flat season finale vs, Michigan State and UM’s tournament opener against Purdue, head coach Dusty May tightened the bolts on the Wolverines offense — boosting Michigan to outputs of 81 and 86 points in the tournament.
The UM offense thrives off passing, with 42 of its total 61 field goals coming via assists. That’s a near 68% assist rate and almost half of those helpers funnel through Donaldson.
He’s dished out a collective 14 assists in the past two games, including nine dimes in the upset win over Maryland in Saturday’s semifinal. Donaldson has now recorded four or more assists in five of his last seven games and has topped the 3.5-assist bar in 14 of his previous 21 contests, going back to December 29.
Those tournament efforts topped Donaldson’s assist total of 3.5 O/U in each outing and Sunday’s player prop is parked at that same spot, despite his recent boom in ball distribution. Anchoring this total is Wisconsin’s defense and a horrible showing from Donaldson vs. the Badgers earlier this season.
On the year, Wisconsin was middle of the pack in the conference in terms of opponents’ assist rate and average assists allowed per game. In the postseason, however, the Badgers have allowed less than 12 total assists per contest and a 53% assist-to-FG ratio.
These rivals clashed way back in December, with the Wolverines stealing a win in the Kohl Center. Michigan did so despite a horrible game from Donaldson, who finished 0-for-7 with zero points and three assists. He’d bounce back with five dimes and 18 points the following game.
If Michigan is going to knock off Wisconsin again today, the ball has to go to big men Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, who starred in that early conference win over the Badgers and combined for 46 points in Saturday’s semifinal victory. Donaldson has done a great job setting up those scorers in the postseason.
Game projections aren’t overly bullish on Donaldson but all sit above the 3.5-assist bar with a ceiling of 4.2 dimes. Some books are as high as -132 on the Over 3.5 and I’m a little surprised, given his recent passing prowess, we’re not seeing a 4.5 total with the Under juiced.
I'll bite on the 3.5 total at -120 with Donaldson commanding the UM offense.
Wisconsin vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Tre Donaldson Over 3.5 assists
Danny Wolf 10+ rebounds
John Blackwell 15+ points
Donaldson has 14 assists over the past two games and has recorded four or more dimes in five of his last seven outings overall.
Wolf will battle the Badgers on the boards. Player projections call for 10 rebounds.
Blackwell will have space to operate with the UM defense focusing on slowing down Tonje. He’s forecasted for 15 points today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Wisconsin vs Michigan odds
Wisconsin vs Michigan live odds
Wisconsin vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: Wisconsin -3.5 | Michigan +3.5
- Moneyline: Wisconsin -165 | Michigan +135
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Wisconsin vs Michigan betting trend to know
Wisconsin has covered the spread in 22 of its last 37 games (+5.55 Units/14% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Michigan.
How to watch Wisconsin vs Michigan
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Sunday, 3-16-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Wisconsin vs Michigan key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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