Two Big Ten teams looking to finish their regular season off with a bang will clash on Sunday afternoon in West Lafayette, as the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Purdue Boilermakers.
The Badgers have lost seven of their last 10 games and are 11-8 in Big Ten play and 19-11 overall. The Boilermakers have won 13 of their past 14 games and are 16-3 in conference play with a 27-3 overall record. Will the Boilermakers complete their best regular season since the 1987-88 season and cover in the college basketball odds this week?
Here are our free college basketball picks for Wisconsin vs. Purdue at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette on Sunday, March 10.
Wisconsin vs Purdue best odds
Wisconsin vs Purdue picks and predictions
These two teams met first this season in Wisconsin on February 4 when the Purdue Boilermakers won 75-69 on the road, covering the 2-point spread. There was only a total of six 3-pointers made between the two teams, which shows how these two teams can put up points through old-school methods.
The Badgers rank 276th in the country in 3-point attempts with 19.7 per game. The Boilermakers rank 227th with 20.9. Yet, both two teams rank in the Top 17 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rankings. Efficiency is the name of the game for both programs.
The Wisconsin Badgers play a very small rotation with only six players averaging more than nine minutes per game. However, all six players average at least 7.5 points per game with a balanced attack. In that game against Purdue, eight players played double-digit minutes, but no one outside of the starting five played more than 14.
Only three of those eight players scored in double digits and one of them was Max Klesmit, who's questionable in this game after suffering a lower-body injury against Rutgers. He's a true game-time decision and would be a crucial blow to their depth against a team that's excellent at drawing fouls.
The Boilermakers rank eighth in the country in drawing fouls with 20.2 per game. They average 24.8 free throw attempts per game, which ranks sixth nationally.
Purdue was 18-for-23 from the charity stripe in their last matchup with the Badgers. No one in the country is better at getting buckets around the rim, hence their No. 1 ranking in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings.
Purdue is a perfect 15-0 at home and is favored by less than 10 points at home for the first time all season. The Boilermakers are 7-3-1 ATS this season when favored by less than 10 points — all on the road or neutral sites. I expect Purdue to use its depth and efficiency to win by double digits in this regular-season finale.
My best bet: Purdue -8.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Wisconsin vs Purdue same-game parlay
Purdue -9
Braden Smith Under 1.5 made threes
AJ Storr Over 14.5 points
Last time these two teams met, each team only made three shots from beyond the arc. Purdue only attempted 11 shots from downtown and Lance Jones made all three. Braden Smith only attempted one and missed. Wisconsin holds opponents to only 18.8 attempted threes per game and Smith will not have a big volume in this game.
Finally, both teams draw a ton of fouls and shoot well from the free-throw line. AJ Storr had 14 points for the Badgers in the last matchup and he may need to do more this time if he's without Klesmit. Storr was 6-for-7 from the charity stripe in that last game and may find even more opportunities this time around.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Wisconsin vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis
The Badgers are 11-17-2 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS in road games. The Boilermakers are 17-12-1 ATS overall and 8-7 ATS at home. The Badgers have been even worse on the road recently, not covering on the road since their January 10 game against Ohio State.
Both teams love playing higher-scoring games than expected by the linemakers. Wisconsin games have gone Over the total in 19 of their 30 games and the Over is 6-5 in their road affairs. Purdue games have gone Over in 20 of their 30 games and the Over is 11-4 at home.
While neither team will make a ton of threes and play very fast, they're just so efficient and rebound so well, allowing them to get easy buckets around the rim. They'll also get plenty of free throw opportunities with their ability to get to the rim. I lean Over here even with so few 3-point chances.
Wisconsin vs Purdue betting trend to know
Wisconsin has only covered the spread in 12 of its last 34 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Purdue.
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Wisconsin vs Purdue game info
| Location: | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, March 10, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Wisconsin vs Purdue key injuries
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