The Xavier Musketeers face off against the No. 11-ranked UConn Huskies at XL Center in Hartford on Wednesday night.
The Huskies seem to have rediscovered the defensive intensity that helped them win the last two national championships, and my Xavier vs. UConn predictions expect them to shut down the Musketeers tonight. Here are my best college basketball picks for this Big East battle on December 18.
Xavier vs UConn prediction
My best bet
Xavier team total Under 67.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The UConn Huskies are the two-time defending national champions but went through a rough stretch in late November, where they lost three straight games against Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton. They've since bounced back with four consecutive wins, beating top programs like Baylor, Texas, and Gonzaga.
Considering they lost four starters to the NBA in the offseason, it isn't surprising that it took time for this new-look lineup to gel. We saw a similar trajectory for the Huskies last year: they had lost three starters from their 2023 title-winning squad and had some uneven performances at the start of the season before figuring things out.
With the exception of a 118-point explosion against Morgan State who's one of the worst teams in Div 1, the Xavier Musketeers have struggled to score over the last few weeks. They were held to just 53 points against Michigan, scored a modest 71 points with 15 turnovers against tiny South Carolina State, and finished with just 65 points on 38% shooting against Cincinnati in their last game.
Xavier also lost leading-scorer Zach Freemantle (16.9 ppg, 54.4 FG%) to a knee injury late in that contest against the Bearcats, and it will be tough to make up for his absence.
The Huskies have been playing lockdown defense ever since losing to Dayton in the Maui Invitational. They held Maryland Eastern-Shore to 45 points while limiting Texas to 65 points on 39% shooting from 2-point range. More impressively, they held Baylor to 72 points and Gonzaga to 71 despite both teams sitting in the Top 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Combine that improved defense with an extremely slow tempo, and UConn should be able to hold the Musketeers below their team total at home.
Xavier vs UConn same-game parlay
Xavier team total Under 67.5
Ryan Conwell 15+ points
Liam McNeeley 7+ rebounds
You can ramp up the plus money on an SGP by doing the opposite of a correlated play, in this case, taking the Under on the Musketeers team total and the Over points for their best offensive player.
Keep in mind that even in games where Xavier struggled to score against Cincinnati, TCU, and Michigan, Conwell finished with at least 17 points. The junior guard is averaging 16.5 ppg and should take even more shots in Freemantle's absence.
Liam McNeeley was a five-star recruit and the gem of Dan Hurley's 2024 recruiting class. The versatile forward has emerged and has averaged 36 mpg over the last three contests and pulled down at least eight boards in each of those games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Xavier vs UConn odds
Xavier vs UConn live odds
Xavier vs UConn opening odds
- Spread: Xavier +11.5 | UConn -11.5
- Moneyline: Xavier +550 | UConn -800
- Over/Under: Over 148 | Under 148
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Xavier vs UConn betting trend to know
The Musketeers have hit the team total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.40 units / 40% ROI) and have gone Over their team total just 13 times in their last 34 contests overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. UConn.
How to watch Xavier vs UConn
| Location: | XL Center, Hartford, CT |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-18-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX Sports 1 |
Xavier vs UConn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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