Alabama vs LSU Player Props & Best Bets: Milroe Musters Multiple Scores

Prop bet #1: Garrett Nussmeier Over 2.5 passing touchdowns

+155 at BetMGM

Few teams pass against Alabama, wanting to avoid a potent pass defense. The Tide rank No. 6 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, opponents worsening their game state far more often than not when eyes are upfield. Alabama succeeds 66.8% of the time when opponents look to pass, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.

Deference should be paid to the Tide’s pass defense, and it is knocking down Garrett Nussmeier’s passing props.

Taking the Over on this touchdowns prop rather than his passing yards total (291.5) is ambitious, but there is value to it. LSU knows its strength is in the passing game, particularly where it matters most. The Tigers’ offensive line has improved this season, but it is still not ideal in run blocking.

Brian Kelly will lean into his offense’s strength, no matter how hard he has to scheme it up. The stakes are simply too high for LSU to turn anywhere else.

The plus-money value on this prop puts proper appreciation into Alabama’s defense but not enough into the Tigers’ urgency.

Prop bet #2: Jalen Milroe 2+ touchdowns

+320 at BetMGM

Similarly, Alabama is going to do what it does best. And the dirty little secret is, what the Tide do best, is turn to star quarterback Jalen Milroe.

He has rushed for two touchdowns in five games this season. For the sake of this being pertinent, let’s ignore the first three games, blowouts of inferior opponents. He has thus rushed for two touchdowns in two of five SEC games. Scratch last week’s blowout of Missouri, when Milroe did not need to stress about anything whatsoever, and that rate becomes two out of four notable SEC games.

When the Tide is most stressed, Milroe is likely to be the ball carrier near the goal line.

Prop bet #3: Jalen Milroe Under 48.5 rushing yards

-115 at BetMGM

Yes, this is counterintuitive, taking Milroe to score twice but also fail to run for even 49 yards. But then again, touchdown rushes actually cut into yardage totals, given the goal line cuts short any further gain.

But more to the reasoning, it is a flaw in NCAA stats that makes this a worthwhile bet. Yards lost to sacks count against a quarterback’s rushing total, and Alabama gives up plenty of sacks, No. 83 in the country at 2.13 allowed per game.

LSU racks up the sacks, No. 6 in the country at 3.5 per game. Against SEC foes, the Tigers’ pass rush has cost opposing quarterbacks 30.25 yards per game on their rushing totals.

Milroe might not get knocked back that much, but every sack will push him closer toward this cash.