Arizona vs Arizona State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Wildcats Show Their Teeth

The Territorial Cup, the nation’s oldest rivalry trophy, is up for grabs this Saturday as the No. 17 Arizona Wildcats head to Tempe to battle the Arizona State Sun Devils.

Looking at college football odds, the Wildcats are 10.5-point road favorites while the total is priced at 50. 

Jedd Fisch’s squad snapped a five-game losing streak, including a 70-7 humiliation in 2020, in this series a year ago and seems to be the vastly superior side for this year’s meeting. 

Read on for my best bet and free college football picks and predictions for Arizona vs. Arizona State on Saturday, November 25. 

Arizona vs Arizona State best odds

Arizona vs Arizona State picks and predictions

Jedd Fisch has done a tremendous job in Tucson and his Arizona Wildcats still have hopes of a Pac-12 Championship. They’ll need to secure a victory on Saturday as two-score favorites but would need an upset from Oregon State over Oregon to secure a bid in the conference championship game. 

Noah Fifita has stepped in at quarterback and has been more than serviceable in his role, leading wins over four ranked opponents while completing 73.6% of his passes for 7.8 yards per attempt and notching 18 touchdowns to just four interceptions. The diminutive signal-caller has a 5-2 record as a starter since taking over for Jayden de Laura. 

Arizona State is in a dark and steep downward spiral. The Sun Devils have lost six straight games and have dealt with an unprecedented amount of injuries that have left them essentially without the ability to field a complete offensive line of scholarship players, amongst other issues. 

The offense has been dreadful, checking in at 113th in EPA per play and 118th in success rate while mustering just 17.3 PPG, fifth-worst nationally. There’s a chance that true freshman quarterback Jaden Rashada could return to the field this week after opening the season as the starter but missing the last nine games due to injury. I do not think his return will have a significant positive impact for Arizona State. 

Looking at recent history, Arizona State had won five straight meetings until Arizona came away with a 38-35 victory in Tucson a year ago. The Wildcats are heavily favored to make it two straight in this series when they head to Mountain America Stadium. 

The tide has turned in this rivalry, and this is a spot where the Wildcats should come to town and make their current superiority abundantly clear to their rivals. There’s a case to be made that Arizona is the better team at all three levels on both sides of the ball, and there’s little reason the think the Sun Devils can compete other than this is a rivalry game and they’re playing at home.

The Wildcats are surging, winning five straight, and have a legitimate shot at making the Pac-12 championship game. They rank 11th in EPA per play on offense and 47th on defense, so they’ll clearly have the top two units on the field as the Sun Devils check in at 113th in EPA per play on offense and 96th on defense. 

This is a game where Arizona should win with emphasis to put a bow on what’s been a remarkable regular season. 

My best bet: Arizona -10.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Arizona vs Arizona State same-game parlay

Arizona -16.5 

Arizona State team total Under 19.5 

+178 at FanDuel

This SGP is a two-legger featuring Arizona -16.5 on an alternative spread and Arizona State to score fewer than 20 points. 

The metrics for both teams paint this as a blood bath. The Sun Devils do not have a competent offense, have been killed by injuries on the offensive line, and have resorted to running back Cameron Skattebo playing at least three different positions in order to cover for the deficiencies elsewhere on the team. The Wildcats, meanwhile, have a Top-10 offense by some metrics and its defense has also been superior, and it’s not close. 

The play on Arizona State’s team total is due to the fact that it has cleared 17 points just once in its last five games. I don’t see any brightness at the end of the tunnel that is this season considering it’s averaged just 183 total yards across its last three games. The Wildcats are strong up front (30th in line yards, 36th in power success rate) and should neutralize this impotent Sun Devils attack.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arizona vs Arizona State spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened Arizona -12.5 at some spots but has since moved down to -10.5. The total opened at 51 but has moved down to either 50 or 49.5 depending on where you look. 

I’m buying back on Arizona at a discounted number. I think the opener is closer to correct than the current number, road rivalry game be damned. I’m just not sure what Arizona State can do to try and win games currently, as it can’t block or throw the ball. Its defense has received a lot of praise, but it still ranks Bottom 15 in success rate. 

As for the total, I’d be inclined to hit the Under, only because the Sun Devils have been such a wreck offensively that it’s hard to see them contributing many points against a solid Wildcats defense allowing just 20.6 ppg and holding four of its last five opponents to 18 points or fewer. 

For how bad the Sun Devils’ defensive metrics are, they’ve actually played better than expected at most points this season and are surrendering just 376.6 total yards per game. It wouldn’t be shocking if they played above their heads a bit here at home for a rivalry game. Now, I don’t expect that to result in a cover against the spread, but it could contribute to the Under. 

Arizona vs Arizona State betting trend to know

Arizona is 9-2 ATS overall this season. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona vs Arizona State.

Arizona vs Arizona State game info

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