The No. 10 Utah Utes look to stay undefeated as they host a former Pac-12 compatriot — and current fellow Big 12 member — the Arizona Wildcats.
Kyle Whittingham’s squad is a 7.5-point favorite and the Wildcats haven’t covered a spread yet this season — but my Arizona vs. Utah predictions are targeting the total.
See why I’m taking the Under as my best bet in my college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
Arizona vs Utah prediction
My best bet
Under 47.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This should be a raucous environment at Rice-Eccles Stadium as the Utah Utes host the Arizona Wildcats in Week 5. Not only is it homecoming, but it’s also the first night game in nearly a calendar year. It’s also the annual dark mode game, which usually results in a loud crowd and a challenging environment for the visiting team.
Handicapping Utes games has become an annual — and honestly, weekly — chore. Kyle Whittingham not only willingly withholds injury information, but he’ll blatantly lie about players’ availability, making it impossible to know who will suit up for any given contest.
It’s "dark mode" every day for Whittingham, who keeps everyone in the dark about the status of his players. The Cameron Rising drama continues as there’s been no update on his status after the team said he was "good to go" last week against Oklahoma State when he — get this — was not, in fact, good to go.
True freshman Isaac Wilson is 2-0 as the starter, going 48-for-82 passing with 550 yards and five touchdowns. Overall, the Utes rank 81st in EPA per play and 94th in explosiveness.
It’s hard to know what to expect given Rising’s perpetually uncertain status, so let’s focus on the concrete details. Both offenses like to operate at a snail’s pace to shorten the game — Arizona ranks 107th in tempo (1.96 plays per minute) while Utah ranks 114th (1.91).
There’s little reason to expect that to change for either club.
Arizona is still finding its identity in Dino Babers’ offensive scheme and is playing on the road in a difficult environment. The Wildcats have disappointed this season, ranking 77th in success rate despite a third of its games coming against arguably the nation’s worst defense (New Mexico) and another third coming against an FCS team (Northern Arizona). Utah’s defense has been fearsome, ranking fifth in success rate.
The Utes may be playing with a true freshman quarterback but their biggest advantage is on the ground against a rebuilt Arizona defensive line that checks in at 110th in line yards, 107th in stuff rate, and 97th in front-seven havoc. More runs with Micah Bernard means the clock will be a-movin’ in this contest
Arizona vs Utah same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 47.5
Micah Bernard anytime TD
Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD
This may seem like a counterintuitive SGP since it’s combining the Under with two anytime touchdown bets but both offenses are pretty straightforward and we can therefore anticipate who will have the ball a lot on Saturday.
Bernard has been the focal point of Utah’s offense, relishing the opportunity to finally be the lead back for this program. He’s taken 66 carries for 456 yards (6.9 yards per carry) and a score while chipping in a six-yard TD reception. He has more than double the scrimmage yards of the next-closet Ute.
Arizona has been gashed on the ground this season, surrendering over 200 yards in each of its games against FBS opponents. That jives with the offseason expectations for this team after losing the vast majority of its defensive front.
Tetairoa McMillan might be the best player in college football.
He’s the clear alpha for this team with 23 more targets, 15 more receptions, 359 more yards, and three more touchdowns than any other Wildcat pass-catcher. He’s averaging an absurd 4.92 yards per route run and has an established rapport with quarterback Noah Fifita, which has to matter in a difficult road environment.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arizona vs Utah odds
Arizona vs Utah live odds
Arizona vs Utah opening odds
- Arizona vs. Utah spread: Utah -9.5
- Arizona vs. Utah moneyline: Arizona +270, Utah -350
- Arizona vs. Utah Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Arizona vs Utah spread and Over/Under analysis
- There’s been some love for Arizona in the market. After opening as high as +12.5, the Wildcats have moved to +8.5 at current. That’s understandable given Utah’s quarterback situation.
- Utah has dominated this matchup lately, going 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS across the last seven meetings.
- Utah has won 10 straight September home games.
- Both teams are trending toward the Under, combining to go 2-5 O/U.
Arizona vs Utah betting trend to know
Utah and Arizona have gone 1-4 O/U in their last five meetings at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona vs Utah.
Arizona vs Utah game info
| Location: | Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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