College Football Best Bets Week 8: Texas Tech Matchup More Bad News for Baylor Bears

NC State vs. Cal Over 46.5

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

My College Football 134 co-host Douglas Farmer (shameless plug) and I have been on the demise of the North Carolina State Wolfpack for most of the season, and now we are watching that play out right before our eyes.

The overall numbers are not inspiring. The Wolfpack enter this game with a 3-4 record, with the wins coming against Western Carolina (FCS), Louisiana Tech, and Northern Illinois. They are also an abysmal 0-7 against the spread.

The offense has been bad, but the NC State defense being bad might be the most shocking part of this season. The Wolfpack have been known for their stout D over the past several seasons, but that just hasn’t been the case in 2024.

NC State ranks 84th in opponent EPA/play and 91st in opponent yards per play. The Wolfpack have been chewed up by opposing runners, ranking 100th in the nation in opponent yards per carry. 

Enter this week’s matchup with the California Golden Bears.

I am willing to overlook Cal’s 17-15 loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers last week in what was one of the more obvious letdown spots in college football last week. The Golden Bears were coming off a big collapse against the Miami Hurricanes the week before and then had to travel across the country and were without star running back Jaydn Ott.

It sounds like Ott is trending toward playing in this one, and that would obviously be a huge boost for Cal. But if he can’t go, they still have Jaivian Thomas, who is running for 5.8 yards per carry. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been solid over the last three games too, throwing for 860 yards and completing 63% of his passes.

Cal has also been a different offense at home, averaging 33.3 points in three games at California Memorial Stadium.

And while North Carolina State's offense has been bad, Cal’s defense is mediocre enough that the Wolfpack should do enough scoring to send this game Over the modest total of 46.5.

Bowling Green -10.5 1H

Best odds: -114 at BetRivers

Sometimes it can be hard to figure out which team is actually on Quit Watch in certain matchups. So, yeah. I want to talk about the Bowling Green Falcons hosting Kent State Golden Flashes.

That’s right, let’s get into some MAC-tion! 

Now, with a quick look at these MAC teams' respective records, and you may not think much separates the 2-4 Falcons from the 0-6 Golden Flashes. But I’m telling you, the only team on Quit Watch here is Kent State. 

The Golden Flashes are probably the worst team in the FBS this season. They enter this matchup ranked 134th (dead last) in EPA/play and defensive success rate while ranking 132nd in opponent EPA/play and offensive success rate. 

It’s hard to imagine a 0-6 team being in a letdown spot, but the Flashes are also coming off a 2-point loss to an almost equally bad Ball State team. It was a game that was likely Kent State’s best chance at winning this season.

On the other hand, you have 2-4 Bowling Green. Yes, the Falcons have lost four of five, including a 17-7 loss to Northern Illinois as 3.5-point home favorites last week. But the Huskies are one of the favorites to win the MAC, and there is a reason the Falcons are nearly three-touchdown favorites in this matchup.

Simply put, Bowling Green has a balanced roster and plays hard. After a season-opening win against FCS Fordham, the Falcons held a lead at halftime against Penn State before losing 34-27 and followed that up by losing by just six points to Texas A&M at Kyle Field. They easily covered massive spreads in those contests.

Overall, the numbers indicate this is a solid team. Bowling Green ranks 58th in offensive success rate and 42nd in defensive success rate. They get solid play from quarterback Connor Bazelak, who is completing 67% of his passes, and have two solid backs in Terion Stewart and Jaison Patterson.

The other thing to note here is that while Bowling Green is 2-4 on the season, its conference record is just 1-1, meaning they have a shot to make a run at the MAC title game. So, Bowling Green still has a lot to play for.

I’m betting they jump out to an early lead against Kent State, which ranks 126th in first-half scoring and 134th in opponent first-half scoring.

Texas Tech -6

Best odds: -108 at DraftKings

The next team on Quit Watch contestants row? Baylor Bears, come on down!

The Bears got off to a slow start offensively this season and made a change at quarterback, going to Sawyer Robertson. It worked against Air Force and things looked good for a while against Colorado. But the Bears collapsed and lost to the Buffs in overtime.

That loss looks like it deflated the Bears. They enter this week’s matchup against the Texas Tech Red Raiders having lost three straight, going 0-3 ATS in the process, with the latest being a 41-23 beatdown handed to them by Iowa State. And even a defense that was playing solid has taken a step back. 

The Bears' stop unit was their strength but they’ve surrendered 38.3 points and rank 87th in the country in opponent yards per play over this three-game losing streak. And while this play is definitely a fade of Baylor, it doesn’t hurt that Texas Tech is playing well either.

The Red Raiders enter this game with a 5-1 straight-up record and have rattled off four consecutive wins, going 3-0-1 ATS in the process. Star running back Tahj Brooks is the engine that makes this Texas Tech offense go.

Brooks has rumbled for 679 yards at 5.5 yards per carry and seven touchdowns. As a result, Texas Tech ranks 14th in EPA/rush and 17th in rush success rate. But let’s not overlook the play of quarterback Behren Morton, who has looked better with each passing week. He’s thrown for 1,640 yards with 14 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions.

The most underrated aspect of this Texas Tech team may be its defense. The Red Raiders rank 12th in opponent EPA/play and 48th in defensive success rate. They have been particularly stout against the run, an area where the Bears have been inefficient this season.

I see edges all over the field for Texas Tech, and when you combine that with Baylor's potential quit factor, this one could get out hand. I like laying less than a touchdown with the Red Raiders at home.