One of the best games of Week 9 goes down tonight in “Sin City” as the UNLV Rebels (6-1) host the No. 17 Boise State Broncos (5-1) at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
It’s a monumental game as there are both playoff and Heisman implications. Boise State will likely be awarded a playoff bid as a non-Power Conference participant if they win out — and that’s a big if given this week’s opponent — while running back Ashton Jeanty is the odds-on favorite to take home this year’s Heisman Trophy.
Read on for my college football picks for Friday, October 25 as I explain why the offenses will be in full control.
Boise State vs UNLV prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 64.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Friday night’s Mountain West showdown between the No. 17 Boise State Broncos and the UNLV Rebels features two dangerous offenses, so I’m taking the Over.
Boise ranks fourth in EPA per play, 11th in success rate, and third in explosiveness while racking up 46.8 ppg. The Broncos have reached 450 total yards in every game other than a road matchup against No. 1 Oregon, who — in case you haven’t heard — is a pretty darn good football team.
Ashton Jeanty has the shortest Heisman odds over at BetMGM, sitting at +200. He’s racked up 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns on an absurd 9.9 yards per rush.
Jeanty is also an extremely dangerous weapon in the air, as evidenced by his 43 receptions for 569 yards and five scores a year ago. The Broncos haven’t used him much there this year, likely for opponents to not have that on tape, but that’s probably a weapon we’ll see in big games like this one.
UNLV is fine defensively, but the Rebels aren’t exactly stout on the ground (72nd in EPA per rush, 115th in rushing explosiveness). Jeanty should break off several explosive runs on Friday night. The Broncos have been efficient through the air (ninth in EPA per pass, 18th in passing success rate), so they’ll score.
On the flip side, UNLV runs the Go-Go Offense under Brennan Marion, an offensive coordinator due for a promotion this offseason. The Rebels are scoring 43.6 ppg and should expose a Boise defense that checks in at 100th in EPA per play and 121st in explosiveness.
The passing attack has taken off since Hajj-Malik Williams took over at quarterback as he’s completed 70.5% of his passes for 9.5 yards per attempt. Ricky White (46 receptions for 614 yards and nine scores) should feast, and the ground game (28th in EPA per rush) holds a statistical advantage over Boise’s defense (104th in EPA per rush, 104th in rushing explosiveness).
Boise State vs UNLV same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 64.5
Ricky White 100+ receiving yards
Jacob De Jesus 45+ receiving yards
Kylin James anytime TD
UNLV’s passing attack isn’t too convoluted as the targets are concentrated mostly around Ricky White. He’s seen a whopping 66 targets the season, which is 42 more than any other Rebel. When the ball is in the air, it’s likely headed toward White.
The Rebels did make a concerted effort to involve Jacob De Jesus in the passing attack a week ago as the dangerous return threat handled eight targets for four catches and 71 yards. Williams provides this team with a better passing threat and it’s therefore no surprise that De Jesus has eclipsed 45 yards in three of his last four games.
Boise State hasn’t proven to be a shutdown defense, surrendering 276.3 passing yards per game. This does not qualify as a difficult matchup for either receiver and no other Rebel has more than 12 targets on the year, so we know where the production is coming from.
Another UNLV player I have been impressed with is running back Kylin James. He has superb numbers, averaging 7.0 yards per attempt with 6.02 yards after contact per attempt and a 56.4% breakaway percentage (per PFF).
He’s seen a workload increase with 22 carries in his last two games and I think the staff is seeing what I’m seeing, so I’ll be on him finding the end zone in an anticipated shootout.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Boise State vs UNLV odds
Boise State vs UNLV live odds
Boise State vs UNLV opening odds
- Boise State vs. UNLV spread: UNLV +2.5
- Boise State vs. UNLV moneyline: Boise State -145, UNLV +120
- Boise State vs. UNLV Over/Under: 66.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Boise State vs UNLV spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both teams have been profitable to back — Boise State is 3-2-1 ATS while UNLV is 5-2 ATS.
- Both teams have also trended toward the Over — Boise State is 5-1 O/U while UNLV is 4-3 O/U.
- Boise State has been a covering machine in the first half, going 10-1 against the 1H spread in its last 11 games. The 1H line is currently -1.5 (-115) at BetMGM.
Boise State vs UNLV betting trend to know
UNLV is 6-1 O/U in its last seven games. Find more college football betting trends for Boise State vs UNLV.
Boise State vs UNLV game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Friday, 10-25-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
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