The first weekend of the 2024 college football season ends with a Labor Day showcase that pits the Boston College Eagles against the Florida State Seminoles tonight.
FSU's short turnaround from that upset loss in Dublin may give bettors hesitation, but my Boston College vs. Florida State predictions believe that worry is overblown. Find out more as our latest college football picks focus on the value in this diminished spread before kickoff on Monday, September 2.
Boston College vs Florida State prediction
My best bet
Florida State -17 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
No, Florida State did not look good in that Dublin opener last Saturday. The Seminoles gained 103 yards on 30 rush attempts. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei reminded us all why Clemson was comfortable moving on from him after the 2022 season, and the offense suffered accordingly.
Georgia Tech’s defensive line deserves credit for that, as it was clearly improved from last season when it created pressure on only 23.6% of opposing dropbacks. It repeatedly put Uiagalelei into stressful moments, and he simply does not fare well once a play design has broken down.
Boston College will not spark that frustration, however. The Eagles’ pass defense ranked No. 128 out of 133 teams last season in expected points added per dropback, and opponents increased their expected score by an average of 0.127 points per dropback.
Then again, opponents did not like to throw against Boston College. Not that they couldn’t, but they could run with such ruthless efficiency. Opponents ran against the Eagles 6.1% more often than the game state would have usually suggested. Only six defenses in the country saw rushes more often.
As pedestrian as Florida State’s offensive line looked last week, it still brought 190 starts into this season, including 123 with the Seminoles. One bad game should not dash all faith in this line, moving a spread from -21.5 to -17, or even -16.5 at some books. That was an overreaction, one not giving enough credit to Georgia Tech’s defensive line, one somehow giving too much credit to Boston College’s.
Let’s take that overreaction and spin it to our benefit, as I continue to doubt the Eagles’ defense.
Boston College vs Florida State same-game parlay (SGP)
Florida State -16.5
Under 50.5
D.J. Uiagalelei anytime touchdown
Just as there should be some remaining faith in the Seminoles’ offensive line, there should be some in their defensive line, too. Will it be as good as last season? Probably not, that’s what happens when you lose two NFL talents like Jared Verse and Braden Fiske. Regardless, one bad evening in Dublin should not cost anyone their entire reputation.
Boston College’s offensive philosophy is likely to see a reset; that is why you hire Bill O’Brien. The Eagles struggled massively on early downs last season, and a strong Florida State push could revive those woes.
Uiagalelei carrying the ball would also add to Boston College’s woes. He never looked comfortable in the offense last week, perhaps partly because he was never tasked with moving the ball himself. It was part of his game in Corvallis, finding the end zone with his legs six times, adding to his career total of 21 rushing touchdowns.
Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell may learn from that this week, asking Uiagalelei to carry the offense in a more literal sense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Boston College vs Florida State odds
Boston College vs Florida State live odds
Boston College vs Florida State opening odds
- Spread: Boston College +21.5 (-110) | Florida State -21.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Boston College +1,100 | Florida State -2,500
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)
Boston College vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line sat at -21.5 for more than two months before Florida State’s loss last weekend dropped this to -16.5 at some books. This is the kind of line movement that makes it seem like the Seminoles lost to Jacksonville State, not a respectable program like Georgia Tech.
- That loss in Dublin did not impact the total as much, knocking a 51.5 total down to 50.5. 52% of bets and 73% of the handle at BetMGM are on the Over as of Monday morning.
- Moving a spread through multiple key numbers and five total points while not adjusting the total underscores the thought that this line move stemmed from an overreaction, not savvy betting.
- Bettors are siding heavily with the Seminoles, with 60% of bets and 69% of the handle on the Florida State spread at BetMGM as of Monday morning.
Boston College vs Florida State betting trend to know
Boston College went Under its team total in four of its last five regular season games in 2023, undoubtedly part of why the Eagles sought an offensive mind when they needed a new head coach in February. Find more college football betting trends for Boston College vs Florida State.
Boston College vs Florida State game info
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Monday, 9-2, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Boston College vs Florida State latest injuries
Boston College vs Florida State weather
Expect hot and humid conditions (95F) with 8 mph winds. There's a 20% chance of rain. Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
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