The SMU Mustangs will try to remain undefeated in ACC play as they host the Boston College Eagles this afternoon.
While the Mustangs are the superior team here, I’ll explain why I expect the Eagles to cover in my Boston College vs. SMU predictions below.
Read on for my full analysis and predictions for this game in my free college football picks for Saturday, November 16.
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, with the game airing on ESPN.
Boston College vs SMU prediction and best bet
Who will win?
Boston College continues to outplay expectations, and it was able to beat SMU when these teams met in the Fenway Bowl last year. While Eagles +19.5 is a very tempting option, the Mustangs are the better bet to win outright.
SMU's potent offense should be able to do just enough to avoid a massive upset in a 34-24 result.
My best bet
Boston College +19.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Boston College Eagles began the year with strong results that made it clear they were a better team than pundits had given them credit for. Yes, the 28-13 win over the Florida State Seminoles looks a lot less impressive now, but they hung tough against the Missouri Tigers on the road as well, a team that has similar talent to the SMU Mustangs.
That’s not to overstate how good the Eagles are. At 5-4, they’re a pretty mediocre FBS team and have little chance of beating SMU outright. But they match up reasonably well in the right areas in order to make this a game.
The Mustangs have been adept in all facets of offense. Kevin Jennings leads an efficient passing attack that, play-for-play, has been one of the better units in the country at 9.1 yards per attempt. Running back Brashard Smith has been the workhorse, pounding in 11 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per rush himself.
BC is fine against both the run and the pass but not great against either. But when we’re talking about nearly a three-touchdown line, I think it’s worth noting that the Eagles are only allowing 23 points per game, with only one team hitting them for more than 31 points on the season.
SMU may well surpass that, getting near their average of 40.1 ppg. But they won’t simply roll over Boston College, which has shown a good ability to stay in games behind quarterback Thomas Castellanos, who has tossed 18 touchdowns this year. SMU is a terror against the run, allowing just 2.8 yards per rush, but can be vulnerable at times through the air.
Boston College can’t take advantage of that enough to win this game. But the SMU offense will face some resistance, and the Eagles can take to the air to score enough to stay in this one. Boston College stunned SMU in the Fenway Bowl last year; they’ll do enough to at least cover in the rematch.
Boston College vs SMU same-game parlay (SGP)
Boston College +19.5
Over 53.5
Boston College 1H +10.5
As I detailed above, I like Boston College to stay in this game at least enough to cover what is a very generous spread given what we’ve seen out of both teams in ACC play. I also think The Eagles will keep this game close early, which has me looking at a first-half spread bet for our SGP. I’m taking the Eagles at +10.5 at the half, getting me over a key number and adding a bit of value to the parlay.
In the end, however, I find it hard to see Boston College shutting down a high-powered SMU offense for long enough to keep this a low-scoring affair. With the total set at 53.5 – a number even the Eagles have gone over in each of their last three games – I’m happy to take the Over here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Boston College vs SMU odds
Boston College vs SMU live odds
Boston College vs SMU opening odds
- Boston College vs. SMU spread: SMU -14.5 (-110)
- Boston College vs. SMU moneyline: Boston College (+525), SMU (-750)
- Boston College vs. SMU Over/Under: 53.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Boston College vs SMU spread and Over/Under analysis
- SMU is 6-3 against the spread this year, while Boston College has a 5-4 ATS record.
- Boston College covered in the only recent meeting between these teams, beating the Mustangs outright as a 13.5-point underdog in a 23-14 win last December.
- The Over has a 6-3 record in SMU’s games this season, with the Under having the 5-4 edge when the Eagles play.
- Boston College is playing to an average score of 50.6 ppg, with the Mustangs averaging 61.9 ppg.
- 56% of Covers Consensus users are backing Boston College on the spread, while 67% are taking the Over.
Boston College vs SMU betting trend to know
Boston College is 2-0 ATS as an underdog of 10+ points this season. Find more college football betting trends for Boston College vs SMU.
Boston College vs SMU game info
| Location: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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