Bowling Green vs Minnesota Prediction: Quick Lane Bowl Odds and Picks

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are without some key pieces, further hampering their already-limited offense in today's Quick Lane Bowl. Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis’s entry into the transfer portal is perhaps the biggest absence. That may be enough of a worry on its own to undermine PJ Fleck & Co. against the Bowling Green Falcons in the latest college football odds.

This may not be the most cheerful or holiday-spirit-filled approach, but doubting that offense is the best value to be found in today's Quick Lane Bowl.

Find out more as we dissect the bowl game odds in our free college football picks and predictions for Minnesota vs Bowling Green on Tuesday, December 26.

Bowling Green vs Minnesota best odds

Bowling Green vs Minnesota picks and predictions

Both Minnesota’s offense and defense rank in the lower half of the country, even when adjusting for opponents, with the offense slightly worse than the defense.

Meanwhile, Bowling Green's defense stands out as above average. Without a doubt, the Falcons' defense will be the best unit on the field at Ford Field on Boxing Day. 

Bowling Green’s defense is best against the pass, giving up successful passing plays on only 38.3% of dropbacks, No. 23 in the country. As a direct result, opponents have preferred to run against the Falcons, logically so. 

For most teams, a successful run is still a bad play. Take Minnesota’s offense, as a pertinent example. In opponent-adjusted expected points added per rush, the Gophers lost 0.023 expected points per carry. (EPA factors in game state, such as time, score, down, distance, field position, etc.) Yet, Minnesota ranked No. 44 in EPA per rush.

To put that more bluntly, the Gophers are a top-third rushing team, yet they worsen their game position with their average rush.

The Falcons will be content to let the Gophers run over and over and over again. Bowling Green has encouraged that most of the season, with opponents rushing nearly five percent more often than would be expected when considering game state. Because as they do so, they eventually fail twice in a row.

Hence, the Falcons have given up quality drives on only 37.3% of opponent possessions. Their defense now faces a third-string Gophers quarterback and an offense that will run more often than usual, an approach that has failed many teams against the Falcons this season. And when Minnesota does find limited success, it will only find itself where it struggles most.

Betting against the Golden Gophers offense this aggressively may seem bold. After all, this is Bowling Green. But here, an anecdotal reason to doubt Minnesota. Google “Cole Kramer” and “Minnesota,” and the fifth hit is his LinkedIn profile.

That may bode well for Kramer’s career after football, but it does not speak highly of the Gophers’ starting quarterback’s gridiron career thus far.

My best bet: Minnesota team total Under 21.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Bowling Green vs Minnesota same-game parlay

Minnesota team total Under 21.5

First half Under 20.5

Bowling Green moneyline

+297 at FanDuel

This is a game in Detroit that's taking place on Boxing Day in the mid-afternoon. Not to impugn either team or their fan bases, but the atmosphere in Ford Field may be a bit lacking. 

That should show itself early... as should Kramer’s inexperience. In five years, he has thrown a total of 14 passes, including just one this season. In 2021, he had a situational rushing role, taking 36 carries for 165 yards and two scores.

Frankly, that may be to Minnesota’s disadvantage. Bowling Green knows what to prepare for, having that touch of film to study. Until things get desperate, this game should be plodding.

And when things get dire, let’s bet on the team with better success on the margins this season. The Falcons average two more yards in net field position than the Gophers do. Minnesota also ended the season plus-three in turnover margin, while Bowling Green finished at plus-eight, forcing 27.

Neither team is good, but the Falcons’ margins inspire enough faith to get weird.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bowling Green vs Minnesota spread and Over/Under analysis

The Gophers opened as six-point favorites before the market gave some credence to losing their top two quarterbacks to the transfer portal, dropping this number to -3.5 at some books.

Minnesota’s offense struggled all season, as discussed. One might wonder how much worse it could get. But no one is improved by moving to a third-stringer, some small sample sizes aside.

The total opened at 37.5, that absence baked in from the outset and the number so low that the market worried. It rose to 38 the next day and to 39.5 the week before Christmas.

Frankly, that feels like folks seeing early bowl games — the first nine averaging 52.4 points and going 6-3 to the Over — and Over-reacting... pardon the pun.

Bowling Green vs Minnesota betting trend to know

The Gophers went 0-2 outright as favorites of fewer than six points this season, losing to both Illinois and Purdue in November. Find more college football betting trends for Bowling Green vs Minnesota.

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