College football returns in full force with an enticing slate of games. One of the headliners of Week 1 is a marquee matchup between the Clemson Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
Read on to see where my Clemson vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks are leaning for Saturday's contest.
Clemson vs Georgia predictions
Early spread lean
Clemson +13.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Clemson Tigers may not have had the best 2023 season, but there are still signs that this is a “buy” team — at least with such a large underdog price attached.
Dabo Swinney’s team finished 9-4 and was an easy target for criticism. It fielded a lackluster offensive attack while Swinney refused to play the transfer portal game that's become crucial for modern college football roster building.
The offense finished 38th in success rate and could move the ball but lacked any sort of big-play ability, ranking 130th in explosiveness. With Cade Klubnik back and the wide receiver room boosted by a fair of blue-chip acquisitions (TJ Moore, Bryant Wesco) pushing for playing time, improvement should come on that side of the ball in the second year of Garrett Riley’s system.
The defense has been nasty for some time and one has to assume that will continue until given a reason to think otherwise. They finished ninth in EPA per play and fourth in success rate a year ago and while some production departs in the front seven, T.J. Parker and Peter Woods are two stars who can steady the ship.
Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs are a fearsome bunch yet again this season and quarterback Carson Beck is among the favorites in the Heisman Trophy odds. I’m not disputing their greatness. I am disputing a bloated betting line in a game where Clemson is slightly underrated in the market after finishing +92 yards per game in ACC play a year ago.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 49.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Georgia’s vaunted defense took a step back last year, finishing 26th in EPA per play and 30th in success rate. There’s enough returning this season that I’m expecting improvement.
Clemson is expected to get plenty of work from running back Phil Mafah this season. I’d expect Riley to be happy to keep the ball on the ground early and often in hopes of exploiting a Bulldogs defense that finished 88th in EPA per rush and 91st in rushing success rate.
That should keep the clock ticking and support an Under narrate. When Klubnik does drop back to pass, it may be tough sledding against a Georgia secondary that finished sixth in EPA per pass a year ago.
Carson Beck leads a Georgia offense that returns seven starters, which gives the Bulldogs a solid floor. The running backs have been the talk of fall camp and should find plenty of grass behind one of the sport’s best offensive lines.
My questions about Georgia’s offense are in the passing game, just as they were with Clemson.
The wide receiving room may need to step up, but we haven’t seen a true difference-maker at that position for this program in a few seasons. Clemson led the country in EPA per pass defensively a year ago and while Nate Wiggins departs, enough returns that this should still be a tough group to throw on.
Clemson vs Georgia live odds
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