Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State Prediction: Hawaii Bowl Odds and Picks

Let’s head over to the island tonight as the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers face the San Jose State Spartans in the Hawaii Bowl.

Generally known as the “Christmas Eve game”, this year’s rendition bowl will be played on the 23rd — but it’s still a festive nightcap for Saturday’s bowl game odds slate. 

The Spartans finished the season red-hot with six straight victories while the Chanticleers limped to the finish line with back-to-back losses. 

Taking a look at college football odds, the Spartans are a 10-point favorite while the total resides at 52.5.

I think most of the factors at play favor one team against the spread and I'll be targeting a side with my best bet. Read on for my college football picks for Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State on December 23. 

Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State best odds

Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State picks and predictions

As is required during bowl season, let’s first take a look at both rosters to see which transfer portal and opt-out absences loom the largest for the Hawaii Bowl. 

The most notable name is Coastal Carolina Chanticleers quarterback Grayson McCall, one of the most accomplished signal callers in the sport. All he’s done in his storied career donning teal is throw for 10,005 yards and 88 touchdowns while rushing for 1,113 yards and 18 more scores.

He’s already found a new home at the Power Four level with NC State, but since he was knocked out with an injury in October, his backups have gotten a fair amount of playing time already.

Joining him in the portal is backup QB Jarrett Guest, star receiver Jared Brown (team-leading 992 scrimmage yards, five touchdowns), rotational running back CJ Beasley, rotational WR Tyson Mobley, second-leading tackler JT Killen, and edge Braylon Ryan. There are 23 names in total in the portal so depth will be an issue, although no players other than the ones listed above saw more than 75 snaps this season. 

The biggest absence for the San Jose State Spartans is left tackle Fernando Carmona, who led the team in both pass-blocking (81) and run-blocking (78.9) per PFF. He was a huge reason for this offensive line’s turnaround after a miserable showing in 2022. Tight end Dominick Mazotti — who is second on the team with 322 receiving yards and two touchdowns — is the only other impact player who has been announced as out for the bowl. 

Coastal’s five losses this season all came against bowl teams with one exception — UCLA, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Army, and James Madison. The exception is Army, who still won six games but failed to qualify for a bowl because two of its wins came against FCS teams. All in all, this isn’t a bad resume for the Chanticleers, who picked up six wins over teams headed to a bowl. 

Third-string QB Ethan Vasko gets the nod with McCall and Guest both headed elsewhere. The former Kansas Jayhawk appeared in seven games — averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt through the air — but he displayed his dual-threat ability by finishing second on the team with 318 rushing yards on 6.9 YPA while finding the end zone twice.

Brent Brennan’s squad was just 1-5 in its first six games of the year but finished on a tear with six straight victories. The losses all came against quality bowl teams that finished with a combined 42-21 record as SJSU played a very difficult non-conference schedule but righted the ship come conference play. 

The Spartans offense is elite and Honolulu native Chevan Cordeiro should feel right at home leading this potent attack that's firing on all cylinders, and this dominant rushing attack is poised to exploit a weak Chanticleers rush defense (103rd in EPA per rush, 115th in rushing success rate, 117th in defensive line yards). 

SJSU’s defensive metrics may look concerning (112th in EPA per play), but it’s fairly clear to see those are heavily affected by the early-season numbers. The Spartans have been fantastic over the second half of the year, holding four of their last five opponents to 4.6 yards per play or less. 

The Spartans are the justified favorites and I’ll take them to cover this spread considering they’re the better team, are in much better form, have fewer opt-out concerns, and are more familiar with the venue being the Mountain West representative.

There’s a -9.5 available at FanDuel which I’ll scoop up while it’s available. Most of the market is at a flat -10, and although -10.5 is also showing, I’d expect there to be some buy back on Coastal at the latter number.

My best bet: San Jose State -9.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State same-game parlay

San Jose State -9.5

San Jose State team total Over 31.5

+131 at FanDuel

Brennan’s offense has been on a tear, chewing up yardage both through the air (43rd in EPA per pass, 31st in passing explosiveness) and on the ground (28th in EPA per rush, 20th in rushing explosiveness).

Cordeiro is an experienced signal caller with roots on the island, Kairee Robinson (1,324 scrimmage yards, 20 total touchdowns) is a record-breaking RB, and WR Nick Nash (704 receiving yards, eight touchdowns) announced he’ll be back on campus next season. 

Coastal’s defense improved mightily from a season ago but also hasn’t faced many good offenses. Georgia State dropped 30 on the Chanticleers while Georgia Southern (38 points) and James Madison (56 points) also found plenty of success. The fact the Chanticleers struggled in their three biggest tests of the season doesn’t bode well against a high-powered Spartans attack. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been plenty of line movement both on the side and the total. San Jose State opened at -7 but has since moved up to -10 at most spots, while the total opened at 54.5 before jumping down to 52.5 at current. 

Both teams have been proficient covering spreads this season — Coastal is 8-4 ATS while SJSU is 9-3 ATS. 

If I’m taking a stab at why the total received Under money, I’d say it has to do with San Jose State’s mightily improved defense over the second half of the season.

The Spartans went 2-3 O/U to end the year despite setting the Earth on fire offensively and their defensive metrics still lagging behind from a tough early-season schedule. Now facing a third-string QB, the expectation seems to be they'll shut down the Chanticleers in a game that doesn’t project to have much pace. 

It also wouldn’t surprise me if we see plenty of rushing attempts to keep the clock moving. San Jose State has a huge advantage on the ground according to the metrics, whereas Coastal will likely utilize Vasko’s legs offensively, especially without a dynamic weapon like Brown catching passes.

Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State betting trend to know

SJSU finished the year 6-1 ATS across its final seven games. Find more college football betting trends for Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State.

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