Why should Georgia be in the College Football Playoff?
That is not meant to be hyperbolic or any version of click bait. It is a genuine question. What have the Bulldogs done in 2024 to warrant a Playoff bid?
They are very good, absolutely. But after losing to Mississippi, 28-10, on Saturday, the best possible pieces of Georgia’s résumé will be wins at Texas and against Tennessee. Again, that is impressive.
But including the Bulldogs means excluding someone else. Someone perhaps like Alabama, who beat Georgia. Or someone like Mississippi, who also beat Georgia. And that is just in the SEC.
Should the Bulldogs get in at the expense of BYU if the Cougars go 12-0 in the regular season and then lose to Colorado in the Big 12 championship game?
This aggravation arises already because there is no conceivable chance the College Football Playoff selection committee drops Georgia out of the Top 10 from its initial rank of No. 3 last week, not unless the Bulldogs lose again.
This is not an overreaction to their falling in Oxford. It is a frustration that even in a year when the top of the SEC is clearly of less quality than usual, it will still be assured of this preferential treatment.
Why should Georgia be in the Playoff?
College football Week 11 things you should not overreact to
Ponder the SEC for a few more minutes. Do not overreact to the mess that could be the SEC tiebreakers. Instead, find value.
The Georgia Bulldogs will need a lot of help to reach the SEC title game. The Dawgs should help their own cause against Tennessee next week, but they still trail Texas and Texas A&M in the loss column. As long as those two reach their meeting to end the regular season with only one loss apiece, the winner will be assured a spot in the SEC title game.
If the Volunteers pull an upset in Athens, they would be positioned to join a Lone Star State counterpart in the SEC championship game, but Tennessee is going to be at least a touchdown underdog.
So, probability wise, all of Georgia, Tennessee and that Texas at Texas A&M loser will have two losses. As long as the Alabama Crimson Tide gets by Oklahoma and Auburn (the Iron Bowl is in Tuscaloosa in even years), then the Tide will join them.
These teams did not play anything close to a round-robin. They do not all have any common opponents. The sheer size of the SEC forces the tiebreaker process to look at the winning percentage of all conference opponents.
Alabama will win that tiebreaker. In order to lose it, Tennessee and Missouri would need to combine for three losses, in addition to the Volunteers falling to Georgia this weekend.
Okay, let’s recap that: As long as Tennessee does not upset Georgia in Athens this weekend, Alabama is positioned to reach the SEC championship game if it can beat Oklahoma and Auburn.
Douglas' advice: Once recognizing that path to the SEC title game against Texas or Texas A&M, it is easy to recognize the immense value in Alabama to win the SEC at +850 at BetMGM, as of Sunday’s earliest hours. That line should be a quarter of that, honestly.
31% converts into, real rough math here and rounding down for assumed vig, +210.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 10, 2024
And yet, I spot Alabama to win the SEC at +850 at BetMGM.
Understanding the SEC tiebreakers yields massive betting value. pic.twitter.com/buq9bnhYjY
Do not overreact to Miami’s loss if pondering any ACC futures. The Hurricanes are still positioned to reach the ACC championship game and secure a first-round bye in the Playoff.
Yes, both the Clemson Tigers and the Miami Hurricanes have one loss in ACC play, but the applicable tiebreaker is “win percentage against common opponents.” The Tigers lost to Louisville; the Hurricanes beat Louisville. Miami lost to Georgia Tech; Clemson does not play Georgia Tech this year. Thus, the ‘Canes win this tiebreaker.
As for losing to the Yellow Jackets, we always knew Cam Ward was turnover-prone. This was always a factor to consider when making any bet on Miami.
As much as the Hurricanes have continued to incur doubt — Mario Cristobal burned a timeout this week after the two-minute timeout, in a game when he needed every timeout to keep hope alive — they should still have no trouble with Wake Forest or Syracuse.
Unless SMU loses two of its final three — vs. Boston College, at Virginia, vs. Cal — it will be Miami’s opponent in the ACC title game. The Hurricanes should be favored by more than a field goal but less than a touchdown.
Again, recognizing the exact status of these conference races can yield value.
Douglas' advice: Miami can be found as a +130 favorite at DraftKings to win the ACC. The literal math would suggest not betting that, but the literal math puts too much stock into any worries against Wake Forest or Syracuse. Given the distinct likelihood of facing SMU in the ACC title game, and thus being a reasonable favorite, Miami at +130 to win the ACC provides late-season value.
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College football Week 11 things you definitely should react to
Do overreact to BYU’s near loss at Utah last night. The Cougars showed resolve, but they were also lucky to snag that last-second win in a number of ways.
The BYU Cougars have been getting by on luck most of the season. The Cougars are plenty quality, but they are not explosive and rely too much on opponents making mistakes rather than forcing those errors.
Do not hold faith in BYU in the long-term. That is said bluntly so as to soften the blow of what is to come. …
Hold faith in the Colorado Buffaloes in the long-term.
The Buffaloes have improved in the last month beyond any doubt. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are the best players on the field in every Big 12 game they play, and they will emphasize that in the final three games of the regular season.
If Colorado wins all three of those — vs. Utah, at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State — it will be in the Big 12 title game, almost certainly facing BYU. Even if the Buffaloes lose one of those games, they would make the conference championship if Iowa State beats Kansas State in Ames to close the regular season.
The way Colorado has improved, and with the understanding that BYU has been more fortunate than anything else, it becomes clear the Buffaloes may be as short as field-goal underdogs in the Big 12 game.
Let’s recap that: Win out against three overmatched foes, probably by leaning on your two best players, also the two best players on the field. Then, be a short underdog at a neutral site against a team low on talent to keep up with your best players.
Douglas' advice: Yep, go bet Colorado to win the Big 12, +220 at DraftKings. This is, admittedly, a distinct change in tone from most of what yours truly has ever written about the Buffaloes, but distinct on-field improvement will often induce a distinct change in tone. Yes, Colorado might make the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.
Updated @Covers College Football Playoff Projection.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 10, 2024
Not what the Playoff would be today. Not what I think should be the Playoff.
What I think it will be.
And I think it'll include Colorado and three-loss Alabama.
We could end up with Alabama vs. Texas twice within three weeks. pic.twitter.com/UqiRSwk5IZ
Do overreact to Tulane’s 52-6 walloping of Temple. The Green Wave are in a form only one other Group of Five team can rival.
The Tulane Green Wave has no Playoff hopes as long as Boise State keeps winning. That is unfortunate for all of us, as the Green Wave may have a Power Four-quality defense in Jon Sumrall’s first season.
But Tulane has hope that an upset could happen in the Mountain West title game — looking at you, hopefully, UNLV. The Green Wave would likely remain ahead of any other Group of Five champion, thus propelling them into the Playoff. But in that sentence was a rankings concern, one best addressed by blowing out opponents.
Tulane has covered the spread in six of its last seven games, the exception still being a 14-point victory. In that stretch, even including the ATS loss, the Green Wave have exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 14.1 points.
Yes, Tulane is exceeding expectations by more than two touchdowns on a weekly basis.
Douglas' advice: There may be a worry backing anyone against this year’s Army or Navy, but Tulane has a quality defensive front, one that should cause consternation in the Midshipmen’s backfield this coming weekend. The spread should not stick near -7 for long, not with how the Green Wave are playing and their clear motivations, but anything inside of single digits should provide value.
Not intended for use in MA.
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