Some unexpected late-week line movement has made this weekend’s biggest game all that much more intriguing. The Ohio State Buckeyes are suddenly only 10-point favorites against the Indiana Hoosiers.
Some might see that and assume significant value on the Buckeyes, but my Indiana vs. Ohio State predictions will focus on the piece of this market that did not move.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, November 23.
Indiana vs Ohio State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 52.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
As of Thursday morning, Ohio State was a 13.5-point favorite. In the evening, it was still at -12.5.
And then it quickly plummeted to -10.
Why?
That initial move could pretty quickly be ascribed to natural late-week line movement sparked by raised limits at many sportsbooks. That increased action firms up the week’s lines, removing any value long before the weekend.
But the second move, from -12.5 to -10? That was a surprise.
Could it be because Ohio State center Seth McLaughlin tore his Achilles in practice this week? That was first reported on Tuesday, so the reaction to it should have been included in the initial move.
Simply enough, the “Why?” of this uncertain move is unclear, but McLaughlin’s absence is the most obvious explanation. Now think further.
Losing your starting center, when you already have some concerns at left tackle due to injury, could provide a hitch in your offense. Indiana’s defense does not have a clear weakness, so anything that knocks the Buckeyes off their usual tendencies could compend. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly does not have a particular angle to exploit as compensation.
All that said, this total did not move amid those line moves. It remained at 52.5.
A move by more than a field goal in the spread because of one particular thought should have also influenced the total. Doubting Ohio State’s offense would not impact the other side of the ball.
As explosive as the Hoosiers’ offense has been this season, it is facing arguably the best defense in the country. What Michigan did in holding Indiana to 20 points last week, Ohio State will exacerbate much further.
This newfound wonder about the Buckeyes’ offense appears to have impacted the spread. It also should have cut into the total. Since it didn’t, let’s embrace that value.
Indiana vs Ohio State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 52.5
Will Howard anytime touchdown
Kurtis Rourke 1+ passing touchdowns
Asking veteran quarterback Will Howard to carry the ball where it matters most should help the Buckeyes hide some of these offensive-line worries, allowing the Ohio State running backs to chip at Indiana’s defensive front seven.
That was the expectation when the Buckeyes visited Penn State, and it became reality until Howard lost control of the ball six inches from the goal line. An important reality of betting on football is not to overreact to the bounces of an oblong ball.
Howard has scored six times this season, and it would be seven if not for that fluke.
As for including Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke in this same-game parlay, it is somewhat of an expectation that the Hoosiers will score at some point. That will most likely come from the quarterback with at least one passing touchdown in every game this year.
It is also an expectation that if and when Indiana is trailing, it will turn to the air to try to catch up quickly.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Indiana vs Ohio State odds
Indiana vs Ohio State live odds
Indiana vs Ohio State opening odds
- Indiana vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State -11.5
- Indiana vs. Ohio State moneyline: Indiana +310, Ohio State -400
- Indiana vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Indiana vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with Ohio State favored by 12, jumping to -12.5 by Monday and then reaching -13.5 on Wednesday.
- A conspiracy theorist would wonder if there is secretly another Buckeyes’ injury that led to the Thursday move to -10 from -12.5.
- This total opened at 54.5 on Sunday afternoon and nearly immediately fell to 52.5. From there, it remained at 52.5 until it briefly toggled to 51.5 midweek.
Indiana vs Ohio State betting trend to know
The Buckeyes have been in five notably massive games in the last two seasons, going 3-2 outright in them. The Under easily cashed in all three of those wins by an average of 18.3 points. Find more college football betting trends for Indiana vs Ohio State.
Indiana vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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