Week 4 began with three outright upsets and four college football odds underdogs covering the spread. We should have known then that some chaos would unfold.
But who could have predicted James Madison would hang 53 first-half points at North Carolina? Who expected SMU to score 66 points in the Iron Skillet against TCU? There is only so much time in a day, let alone a Sunday, so let’s avoid talking about Colorado’s Hail Mary to force overtime against Baylor.
But the most important part of Week 4 was the expected, the Top-25 games that revealed inarguable truths about some national title contenders.
College football Week 4 things you should not overreact to
Do not trust Michigan’s offense even after it upset USC on Saturday.
The Michigan Wolverines upset the USC Trojans, 27-24. They gained 324 yards and averaged 5.68 yards per play if ignoring their kneel to end the game. For context, Michigan managed 269 total yards and 4.41 yards per play to open the season against Fresno State before tallying 284 total yards and 5.07 yards per play against Texas.
But the Wolverines gained 157 yards on just three carries on Saturday, two via the legs of Kalel Mullings. On its 54 other snaps, Michigan gained 167 yards, an average of 3.09 yards per play.
Pretty sure the @statsowar "Did We Really Get Beat That Bad" chart is not going to delight USC fans tomorrow ...
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 21, 2024
The Wolverines found enough success against the Trojans. They won that game and, somewhat surprisingly, had a healthy postgame win expectancy of 68.3% afterward. This is not to take away from any of that.
But Michigan had three quality drives on 12 possessions, and all three drives were entirely reliant on explosive rushes. The Wolverines had six possessions of three plays or fewer.
Michigan’s quarterback change to Alex Orji was a failure, even if it won the game.
Douglas’ advice: The Wolverines have some time to recoup, not facing a stiff foe for the next month, but continue to look for moments to doubt this offense. If you think Minnesota’s or Illinois’ defense is legitmate, then take the Gophers to cover the spread this weekend or the Illini to do so on Oct. 19.
Don’t overreact to USC losing this game. Its defense played well.
This logic is the same as above. Trojans quarterback Miller Moss made one costly mistake, and the defense blew three run fits against one of the most physical offenses in the country.
USC should never have been involved in the Playoff conversations it trended toward after upsetting LSU to open the season. And this urge to not overreact is not to also suggest the Trojans should remain in those Playoff musings. Look at the schedule: Penn State, Nebraska, and Notre Dame await.
USC will stumble again, probably a couple times, but it should be given more credit than some will allow after this loss in Ann Arbor. The Trojans have a legitimate defense, and that has always been the single thing Lincoln Riley has lacked.
Trust it against anyone without an elite offense. So, looking at that schedule, trust it against anyone but Penn State and perhaps Nebraska.
Douglas' advice: Early lines have USC favored by 14.5 against Wisconsin this week. If you see a -14 on the board, do not hesitate.
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College football Week 4 things you definitely should react to
Go ahead and overreact to Utah’s stake in the Big 12. Go further and look at Playoff futures.
The Utah Utes beat Oklahoma State more handily than the 22-19 final score indicates, without star quarterback Cam Rising. That alone should establish Utah as the class of the Big 12.
The truer final score was 22-11, the Cowboys scoring a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining largely because the Utes were in a prevent defense. Remove the 69 yards gained on that drive — and the 10 Utah gained as it ran out the clock — and Oklahoma State was outgained 447 yards to 216, 5.88 yards per play to 4.15.
The Cowboys were supposed to be the Utes’ primary competition in the Big 12, and they had no semblance of a chance even while the Utah offense was without Rising.
Whittingham said they were hoping that Cam Rising was going to be ready — was a true game-time decision — but it just didn't happen. Felt Isaac Wilson was the best way to get a win, and Rising agreed.
— Josh Furlong (@JFurKSL) September 22, 2024
Later Saturday night, Kansas State was routed by BYU, 38-9. If not Oklahoma State, the Wildcats were seen as the Utes’ best competition in the conference.
Utah now has a one-game lead on the other worries in the Big 12. It can be effectively penciled into the Big 12 championship, and it will be favored if Rising is back in the fold.
Douglas' advice: Utah is +5,000 to win the national championship at both FanDuel and DraftKings as of early Sunday morning. If the Utes can be penciled into the Big 12 title game, where they will be favored, and the Big 12 champion gets a first-round bye in the Playoff, that 50-to-1 ticket will have immense value come New Year’s Eve.
It is not an overreaction to cast aside Missouri aspirations.
When you are three-possession favorites against Boston College and win only 27-21, it is not too much of a concern. The score was 27-14 in the final third of the fourth quarter last week before an explosive passing touchdown from the Eagles.
But a week later, to need double overtime to beat Vanderbilt … Be concerned, Missouri Tigers fans.
Let’s note: Both those games were at Missouri.
Tigers kicker Blake Craig missed three field goals, and that obviously would have kept this game out of overtime, but even if the Tigers had won 29-20, the moments of fret are stacking up.
Missouri has a week off before heading to Texas A&M. It has to head to Alabama later in October. Losing both would dash any Playoff hopes.
Douglas' advice: Whatever the total opens at in College Station on Oct. 5, target the Under. Aggies head coach Mike Elko will scheme up his defense to slow this Missouri offense, and the Tigers clearly lack a killer instinct. Needing to attempt five field goals in regulation time against Vanderbilt is a massive red flag for any offense.
Keep an eye on Tar Heel Drama.
Mack Brown is 73 years old. His return North Carolina Tar Heels tenure has yet to find its expected glory. Wretched defense spoiled the careers of quarterbacks Sam Howell and Drake Maye, and now the defense may be worse than ever.
The fun thought here would be to wonder if former Tar Heels defensive coordinator Gene Chizik suddenly looks employable by comparison, but the reality in Chapel Hill wants nothing to do with jokes.
Brown reportedly told his team he was stepping away from the job after the 70-50 loss to James Madison, but in his postgame media availability, he clarified that to mean he would be stepping away if he could not fix this program.
There is no discernible fix midseason. This defense ranked No. 105 in SP+ rankings after the 2022 season and No. 78 after the 2023 season. Giving up 70 points to James Madison may push the Tar Heels, at No. 43 before this weekend, back into that latter reach.
Douglas' advice: Sunday’s earliest lines position North Carolina as field-goal underdogs at Duke next weekend, but the Blue Devils’ offense is terrible. North Carolina may hold up for one more week and provide value on that moneyline thanks to Brown’s immediate motivation, but any more Tar Heel embarrassment should create a clear sell opportunity.
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