The Colorado Buffaloes deserve a bit of praise because it appeared their season could go off the rails after a blowout against Nebraska. Since then, though, Colorado has rebounded with back-to-back wins, including over Baylor last week.
However, my Colorado vs. UCF predictions can't overlook UCF's top-ranked run unit feasting on the Buffaloes' run defense.
Read on for our Colorado vs. UCF predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 28th.
Colorado vs UCF prediction
My best bet
Central Florida ML + KJ Jefferson to score a touchdown (+115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Colorado again finds itself in the precarious position of being the most polarizing team in college football. Through some fault of its own, it's created a situation where teams get up much more than they otherwise would for a team without Deion Sanders attached. That has voided the Buffaloes' ability to "sneak up" on any team and was likely one of the reasons it's experienced so many heavy losses. This team is better than it was a season ago, but some things remain:
- Teams are getting up to play Colorado, and its awful rushing defense remains. That's the genesis of our best bet and why we're pairing the man beyond center, KJ Jefferson, to score in a win for the UCF Knights.
- Colorado enters this one with some eye-popping trouble defending the rush. I'll give you those numbers, but it's so bad that Sanders had a simple answer when asked how he'd slow the best rushing attack in the conference.
"Load up the box and pray," the coach said.
If it's its head coach who doesn't have a viable plan to stop the run, then I won't expect them to either. There's no reason to expect it, either. Colorado is 11th in the Big 12 in rushing plays of 20+ allowed, 10th in the Big 12 in rushing defense, and 10th in the Big 12th in yards per carry allowed. Most importantly, however, the Buffs have been great against the pass in the red zone, which will force Head Coach Guz Malzahn to get creative, and I expect it to lead to even more designed runs for KJ Jefferson.
He's scored just one touchdown during the season, but the chances have been there. Last week, in Central Florida's toughest test of the season, the 6' 3, 247-pound Senior saw multiple rushing attempts in all but one trip to the red zone. Given that points are expected to be in high supply here, I'd expect there are plenty of opportunities for Jefferson to find paydirt. Especially given that it will take some innovation to punch it in.
Colorado vs UCF same-game parlay (SGP)
UCF moneyline
KJ Jefferson anytime touchdown
Travis Hunter anytime touchdown
With touchdowns being the only prop available here, we're left in short supply, but we're going with a safer option to round out our same-game parlay. We will add Travis Hunter to find the end zone here.
The volume for the Heisman hopeful has been astonishing over the last few games. He's had double-digit receptions in half of his games and double-digit targets in all of them. With a Heisman campaign at least slightly off the ground, this is as much of a narrative play as anything. Even in a blowout, Deion Sanders isn't one to shy away from pumping up the numbers of any of his players, and he'll be fed to do that. It also helps that Hunter is still the best player on the field, going against a passing defense that has been average this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colorado vs UCF odds
Colorado vs UCF live odds
Colorado vs UCF opening odds
- Colorado vs. UCF spread: UCF -12.5
- Colorado vs. UCF moneyline: Colorado +425, UCF -600
- Colorado vs. UCF Over/Under: 63.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Colorado vs UCF spread and Over/Under analysis
- This matchup marks the first head-to-head meeting between the two schools in the modern era.
- In what might surprise some, Colorado has actually been pretty balanced on the total. Over the last ten games, the Over has hit in five of the ten games, including two of the four games this season.
- Central Florida has been a great ATS bet this season, covering three of its four games.
- Colorado has covered two of its four games this season and six of its last ten overall.
Colorado vs UCF betting trend to know
UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last six games at home (+4.00 Units / 60% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Colorado vs UCF.
Colorado vs UCF game info
| Location: | FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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