What better way to spend a Friday night than enjoying a low-scoring affair between the Duke Blue Devils and the Northwestern Wildcats? Sure, go to the bar. Sure, hang out with your friends. Be a social, well-rounded human being.
But having this game on in the background will provide you with some drama. That might be the nicest thing my Duke vs. Northwestern predictions can say about this game, as it will be close and dramatic.
My latest college football picks will capitalize on the plodding tension before kickoff on Friday, September 6, at 9:00 ET.
Duke vs Northwestern prediction
My best bet
Northwestern -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Neither Duke nor Northwestern impressed much last week.
The Blue Devils controlled their matchup with FCS-level Elon from start to finish, a 10-0 halftime lead becoming 19-0 by the fourth quarter, a 26-3 victory decisive if not also uninspiring. Meanwhile, the Wildcats had to worry against Miami (OH), scoring the game’s only touchdown in the third quarter to shuffle to a 13-6 win.
Oftentimes we argue teams kept their strengths close to the vest against overmatched opponents in Week 1, but neither Duke nor Northwestern was in a comfortable enough position to play coy like that. What we saw is what we will most likely get from them this season.
The Blue Devils showcased no viable running game, as they totaled just 59 yards on 27 carries. To say the obvious thing bluntly, they did that against what should be considered an overmatched FCS defensive front.
Thus, it is easy to assume Northwestern will halt Duke’s run game entirely. The Wildcats return all four starters from a defensive line that fared better than expected last season against the rush. “Better than expected” was a low bar to clear, but a notable one all the same. Logically, it will also be improved this season.
Turning the Blue Devils into a one-dimensional offense will be costly in Northwestern’s temporary venue, Martin Stadium — literally within punting distance of Lake Michigan. With relatively decent weather last week, RedHawks quarterback Brett Gabbert and Wildcats quarterback Mike Wright combined to complete 59.7% of their passes at, worse yet, 6.0 yards per pass attempt.
Friday night’s weather will make that life even more difficult. Winds approaching 20 miles per hour and some showers in the evening may become the Martin Stadium default. That will favor whoever is better at stopping the run.
Northwestern is better at that, further benefited from how bad Duke is running the ball, down three starting offensive linemen and its star backfield from last season. Relying on the Wildcats' defensive front in these conditions means trusting any number below a field goal.
Duke vs Northwestern same-game parlay (SGP)
Northwestern -2.5
Northwestern team total Under 20.5
Mike Wright anytime touchdown
There should not be an abundance of belief in Northwestern’s offense, not by any means. But in 2023, the thing the Wildcats did least badly was run the ball. Returning both starting tackles and starting center should encourage that trend to continue, hence gaining 151 yards on 30 carries last week against a relatively strong rush defense in Miami (OH).
The RedHawks ranked better than the Blue Devils in every worthwhile defensive rushing metric a year ago, and now Duke has to reset that entire defensive front. Northwestern should succeed in running the ball, but it should also focus entirely on the ground attack. That will both shorten the game and lessen the Wildcats’ chances of frequent offensive success.
Part of last week’s rushing success was via Mike Wright’s legs, taking nine carries for 65 yards and a score. He has always been a rushing threat, most notably scoring five times in 10 games with Vanderbilt in 2022. Northwestern’s offense may need to lean on that ability, particularly in these lake-effected home games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only
Duke vs Northwestern odds
Duke vs Northwestern live odds
Duke vs Northwestern opening odds
- Spread: Duke +2.5 (-110) | Northwestern -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Duke +108 | Northwestern -130
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Duke vs Northwestern spread and Over/Under analysis
- After their respective lackluster Saturdays, Duke opened as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday afternoon. Lookahead lines had positioned the Blue Devils as 2.5-point favorites, but they had not properly accounted for roster attrition when considering prior advanced metrics.
- The spread peaked with Northwestern favored by -3 late on Sunday, then returning to -2.5 on Monday morning and remaining steady all week.
- The total opened at 39.5 on Sunday afternoon and then spent the week falling. Some of that is tied to the weather forecast, and some of it is due to the realities of these offenses. As of Wednesday afternoon, the total has valleyed at 36.5, but it would not be entirely shocking to see it fall to 35.5 by Friday morning.
Duke vs Northwestern betting trend to know
Northwestern games have gone Under their totals in seven of their last 10. Find more college football betting trends for Duke vs Northwestern.
Duke vs Northwestern game info
| Location: | Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium, Evanston, IL |
| Date: | Friday, 9-6-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Duke vs Northwestern latest injuries
Duke vs Northwestern weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
