Things just keep getting tougher for the Florida Gators, as they face their third Top 10 team in the last four games when they travel to Austin on Saturday to face off with the Texas Longhorns.
What's even worse news for the Gators is they are down to their third-string quarterback against one of the best defenses in the country. The Longhorns will be salivating to get after the quarterback to force some mistakes, which should leave to scoring opportunities for the Texas offense.
Here are my favorite college football picks surrounding player props for Florida vs. Texas on Saturday, November 9. Be sure to also check out our Florida vs. Texas predictions!
Florida vs Texas props for Week 11
- Quinn Ewers Under 244.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Quintrevion Wisner 2+ TDs (+220 at BetMGM)
- Gunnar Helm anytime touchdown (+170 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 11-8.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Florida vs Texas college football player props
Prop bet #1: Quinn Ewers Under 244.5 passing yards
This is not a bet against Quinn Ewers’ talent or even against his performance in this game. This is a bet against the lack of opportunity he'll have to rack up yards in this contest. The Longhorns are favored by 22.5 and will play against a third-string quarterback.
With Texas' defense forcing a ton of incompletions and interceptions, the Longhorns will be playing on a short field on several of their possessions. They'll also likely be playing with a big lead and will be moving to their run game to run out the clock. Ewers has only 199 yards passing in a similar type of game against the Oklahoma Sooners this season.
Besides the game script, the Florida defense is decent against the pass, allowing only 219.4 passing yards per game. It held Nico Iamaleava to only 169 passing yards a few weeks ago. Ewers will play well in this game, but he won’t rack up the yards with the game script against a decent defense.
Prop bet #2: Quintrevion Wisner 2+ touchdowns
The most likely touchdown scorer in this game will be running back Quintrevion Wisner. He's dominated the snaps as of late in the backfield for the Longhorns out-touching Jaydon Blue 73-40 in SEC play. However, Wisner to score an anytime touchdown is pretty bad odds.
That is why I'll take the gamble on him to score multiple touchdowns at a good plus number. The game script should allow Texas to have plenty of short-field opportunities, and playing with a big lead will lead to more touches for Wisner. While he only has two touchdowns on the season, that should not dissuade you from taking this given the opportunity he will have this time around.
The Gators have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns this season compared to only nine passing touchdowns. They have also allowed at least two rushing TDs in four of their eight games this season. We're getting good odds here, so it's worth the stab at what could be a 50/50 type play with around 30/70 implied odds.
Prop bet #3: Gunnar Helm anytime touchdown
As I mentioned previously with the game script, Texas will get lots of opportunities to score touchdowns in the red zone. While I already mentioned how I like the lead running back to score multiple touchdowns, there's still an opportunity for someone to score through the passing game. Enter tight end Gunnar Helm.
Helm has at least four catches in each of the past four games against SEC opponents. In what I believe will be a very similar type of game to this one, Helm scored a TD against Oklahoma. He also scored a touchdown early in the season in a blowout-type game against Michigan.
With Helm being Ewers’ most consistent target and the chance for great field position, it's hard to ignore these odds on him to score an anytime touchdown. The Gators allowed a tight end TD to Texas A&M earlier in the season, and this is a great opportunity for another Texas team to hit them with a tight end touchdown.
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