The 12-team College Football Playoff continues to give us win-and-in, lose-and-go-home showcases in the SEC. When the Georgia Bulldogs face the Mississippi Rebels this weekend, the winner can pretty much assume it will make the expanded postseason, while the loser’s hopes should be dashed entirely.
Those stakes could dictate this game as much as any other trends, with my Georgia vs. Mississippi predictions and free college football picks betting on Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart’s willingness to slow down a game. That won't make for many fireworks following this 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday afternoon kickoff on ABC.
Georgia vs Mississippi prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 55.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Last offseason, Mississippi spent its NIL budget largely on defenders, and it has paid off. The Rebels’ defense ranks No. 6 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per snap against, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, and No. 7 in the current SP+ ratings. It would be inaccurate to say Mississippi is now a defense-driven team. Its offense is better rated in both those regards, but Lane Kiffin has quality on both sides of the ball for once.
Most pertinently, the Rebels do not give up explosive rushes. That is most pertinent because explosive rushes have become a Georgia necessity. The Bulldogs do not run often, relatively speaking — 6.6% less often in a given game state than the average team would run, the 10th-lowest rate in the country. And when they do, they usually fail, staying ahead of the chains on only 44.1% of rushes, No. 59 in the country.
But when Georgia finds success rushing, it finds great success. The Bulldogs rank No. 7 in EPA per rush. Now combine those thoughts quickly: The Bulldogs rank No. 59 in rushing success rate but No. 7 in EPA per rush. That combination speaks to Georgia’s explosiveness.
Now if Mississippi’s defense is going to limit that, that alone may be reason enough to take this Under.
But fortunately, the other side of the ball further underscores this expectation. Set aside every ounce of Kirby Smart’s preferences for a defense-dominated game and hone in on Georgia’s showing at Texas three weeks ago, holding the Longhorns to just 15 points. The Longhorns’ offense is similar to the Rebels’ in terms of run/pass splits and much better once within scoring range. Yet, the Bulldogs kept it in check.
Asking Georgia to do that again is not ambitious, and given the stakes of this game, it is undoubtedly Smart’s intention, anyway.
Georgia vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 55.5
Georgia -2.5
Trevor Etienne anytime touchdown
In a moment with binary postseason stakes, who would you rather have faith in: Kirby Smart or Lane Kiffin? That should be a rather quick decision.
As for Georgia running back Trevor Etienne, he has scored at least once in four of his last five games. The exception? When he was banged up against Florida last week and eased up so as to be fresher this weekend, taking only seven carries, his least work in two months.
The Bulldogs’ caution with Etienne last week should aid his cause in Oxford.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Georgia vs Mississippi odds
Georgia vs Mississippi live odds
Georgia vs Mississippi opening odds
- Georgia vs. Mississippi spread: Mississippi -3.5
- Georgia vs. Mississippi moneyline: Georgia -145, Mississippi +120
- Georgia vs. Mississippi Over/Under: 54.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Georgia vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis
- In the summer, Georgia sat as a 6.5-point favorite in this matchup, a number that reopened on Sunday at just -3. The difference? Mostly in the Bulldogs’ performance, a few ticks below what was expected in the preseason.
- This week’s movement halted on Sunday evening. This spread fell to -2.5 by the end of the weekend and did not move during the week.
- The summertime spread of 54.5 did not need to be adjusted this week, Sunday’s openers reaching the market at 54.5 and the week not moving until late on Thursday.
Georgia vs Mississippi betting trend to know
Of the combined 17 games played by one of these teams this season, 12 of them have gone to the Under. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs Mississippi.
Georgia vs Mississippi game info
| Location: | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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