With Nick Saban retired, Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs were supposed to be the new kings of the SEC. Well, they probably shouldn’t have invited the Texas Longhorns to the coronation.
It’s the Longhorns who enter this game as the No. 1 ranked team in the country with a 6-0 record. My Georgia vs. Texas predictions and college football picks will break down why Isaiah Bond and the Longhorns' passing game will be the difference on Saturday night.
Here are my college football picks for this massive SEC showdown on October 19. Make sure to also check out Douglas Farmer's favorite Georgia vs. Texas props before placing your bets!
Georgia vs Texas prediction and best bet
Who will win Georgia vs Texas?
Texas. Full stop.
The best positional unit in this game is the Longhorns offensive line. Georgia has struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Quinn Ewers will be given more opportunities to make plays in this game.
My best bet
Isaiah Bond Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It’s a rare occurrence for Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs to be underdogs. In fact, it’s the first time since they were 3-point dogs against the Clemson Tigers in Week 1 of 2021.
The Bulldogs won that game 10-3 on the way to an undefeated season and their first national championship of the Smart era. But this feels a little different.
Georgia looks a little vulnerable. The Bulldogs almost lost to Kentucky and then were stunned in their matchup with Alabama a few weeks ago, watching the Crimson Tide jump out to a 28-0 lead. Yes, Georgia clawed its way back into that game, but seeing Bama move the ball the way they did was shocking considering some of the defenses Smart has had in the past.
Meanwhile, the Texas Longhorns very much look the part of a No. 1 ranked team. For my money, they are the most talented and complete team from top to bottom in the country. The numbers back that up, as Texas ranks fourth in EPA/play and offensive success rate, third in opponent EPA/play, and fifth in defensive success rate.
Yes, the win at the Big House against Michigan has lost some of its luster, and they crushed an Oklahoma team that appears to not have a functioning offense.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers looked solid after missing more than a month due to injury, and I like him to be effective in this matchup. That’s in part because he gets to play behind the best offensive line in the country and they will give him time against a Georgia pass rush that has struggled to generate pressure.
The Bulldogs rank 87th in the country in defensive success rate on dropbacks, and that should also give Ewers enough time to find his favorite target — Isaiah Bond.
The former Alabama wideout has been a stud this season for the Longhorns, catching 21 balls for 369 yards and three scores. Bond racked up at least 51 yards in each of his first five games before just grabbing just one ball for five yards against Oklahoma, but to be fair, Texas didn’t even really need that passing attack in that game.
Bond’s receiving yards prop is sitting at 50.5, which is a number that seems to give the Georgia secondary respect for what it was in the past, and not what it is heading into Saturday.
Georgia vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas -4.5
Over 56.5
Gunnar Helm Anytime TD
The only player props I can add to this same-game parlay are touchdown props (sorry Isaiah Bond).
Instead, let’s look at one of Quinn Ewers' big targets, and I mean that literally in 6-foot-5 tight end Gunnar Helm.
Helm is second on the team in receiving with 21 receptions for 311 yards and two scores, and he has done almost all of that damage when Ewers has been under center. In his last two games with Ewers as his quarterback, Helm has been targeted 13 times, catching 12 of them for 189 yards and two scores, and finding the end zone against both Oklahoma and Michigan.
Since I picked Texas to win, I may as well add them to cover the 4.5-point chalk too. Once again, the Longhorns' offensive line will be the difference, and Ewers will be more effective than Carson Beck.
That said, Georgia’s offense has looked a little better since that second half against Alabama, showing a little more explosiveness, particularly in the passing game where they rank 37th in success rate on dropbacks and 17th in EPA/dropback.
While I like Texas to win, Georgia will still put up a good fight and score some points. Close this SGP out with the Over 56.5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Georgia vs Texas odds
Georgia vs Texas live odds
Georgia vs Texas opening odds
- Georgia vs. Texas spread: Texas -3.5
- Georgia vs. Texas moneyline: Georgia +135, Texas -150
- Georgia vs. Texas Over/Under: 53.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Georgia vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
- The lookahead lines back in the spring had Georgia as a 2-point road favorite. My how things have changed. When this line reopened on Sunday it had Texas as laying 3.5 points of chalk. The line then moved up as high as Texas -5 and has bounced back-and-forth between that and 4.5.
- Not only do I like the edge Texas has on the offensive line and at quarterback, but my hot take is I like their coaching edge too. Kirby Smart has looked a little flustered the last few weeks and now will have to deal with the most talented roster he's seen this season.
- The total hit the board at 53.5 and it has been steady Over money since then with the number sitting at 56.5 as of Friday evening.
- I lean slightly to the Over in this matchup. Steve Sarkisian has so many weapons at his disposal and has the tools to take advantage of Georgia's defensive weaknesses. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs and Carson Beck have also shown some improvements in the passing game over the last few weeks, and Texas hasn't faced a good quarterback yet.
Georgia vs Texas betting trend to know
The Longhorns have covered the spread in six of their last eight games at home (+4.90 Units / 56% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs Texas.
Georgia vs Texas game info
| Location: | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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