The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off Friday night in South Bend when the No. 7 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) host the upstart No. 10 seed Indiana Hoosiers (11-1).
It’ll be a cold night, and both offenses are facing a step-up in competition after facing questionable strength of schedules during the regular season. My college football picks for Friday, December 20 take a closer look at the market for Indiana vs. Notre Dame props and see if the pricing accurately reflects how this game should play out.
Indiana vs Notre Dame props for the CFP First Round
Riley Leonard Over 52.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Omar Cooper Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Ty Son Lawton Over 47.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-19.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Indiana vs Notre Dame player props
Prop bet #1: Riley Leonard Over 52.5 rushing yards
The current weather forecast calls for temperatures of 25 to 29 degrees and winds of 10 to 12 mph. It’ll be a cold and somewhat windy night at Notre Dame Stadium, so don’t expect either passing offense to light up the scoreboard.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have made their hay offensively by keeping things on the ground, compiling 224.8 rushing yards per game on a healthy 6.3 yards per carry. The advanced metrics love them too — they check in at second in EPA per rush, 22nd in rushing success rate, and first in rushing explosiveness.
A big part of that attack has been the stellar performance of Jeremiyah Love, an ultra-talented running back who leads the team with 949 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns. Naturally, it was a concern for the Irish faithful to see Love go down with a right knee injury in the regular season finale against USC.
Love will play on Friday night, but it’s fair to question if he’ll be at 100%. The inside word is that he’s been battling an injury since before that USC game and didn’t look full strength in practice either before that game or after it.
Who will step up and handle a larger workload? Quarterback Riley Leonard is second on the team with 124 carries for 721 yards and 14 touchdowns. His legs are a huge part of the game plan already and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he racks up 20 carries, mostly on designed runs, against the Indiana Hoosiers.
Leonard does a good job in the pocket avoiding sacks as Notre Dame allows 1.3 sacks per game as a team. That’ll be crucial against a havoc-wrecking Indiana front to avoid negative rushing yardage for the purposes of this prop.
BetMGM has established Leonard’s rushing yardage prop at 52.5, and I’m buying the Over. The Irish have rushed for at least 200 yards in five straight games and will look to establish their brand of football on a cold night at home against a game opponent.
Prop bet #2: Omar Cooper Over 29.5 receiving yards
While the cold temperatures and mild winds should result in decreased passing output, it’s not like the weather is bad enough that the throw game will completely disappear.
The books seem to disagree, pricing the wide receivers’ yardage props in the basement. One example is Hoosiers wideout Omar Cooper, who averages 47.6 receiving yards per game yet has a receiving yardage prop of just 29.5.
That’s too steep of a discount, so I'm buying the Over.
Indiana's deadly efficient passing attack leads the country in EPA per pass and passing success rate. That makes this a classic strength-on-strength matchup, as Notre Dame actually leads the nation in both statistics defensively.
Neither team has faced a terribly difficult schedule, but Notre Dame’s stands out for this handicap because it features a slew of bad passing offenses. That includes two option teams (Navy, Army), a team on its third-string quarterback (Georgia Tech) and another on a backup (Florida State). There were also three teams ranked outside the top 100 in EPA per pass (Purdue, Stanford, Virginia), and two MAC schools (Northern Illinois, Miami of Ohio).
The three exceptions are Texas A&M, Louisville, and USC. A&M ended up benching original starter Conner Weigman twice, but Louisville and USC both found success. The Cardinals threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns and the Trojans racked up 360 yards and three scores with their second-string quarterback.
This Notre Dame secondary may be good, but it certainly hasn’t been tested much this year. It will be Friday night against a team that is very good at scheming up plays through the air.
Cornerback Christian Gray was picked on repeatedly in the USC game, surrendering eight receptions for 130 yards. I expect the Hoosiers’ offensive staff to get players like Cooper the ball, especially when matched up against Gray. Cooper averages 21.1 yards per reception and only needs one or two catches to hit his Over.
Prop bet #3: Ty Son Lawton Over 47.5 rushing yards
Notre Dame’s numbers against the rush aren’t what you’d expect for a defense allowing just 13.6 ppg. The Irish rank 61st in EPA per rush and 80th in rushing success rate, and their metrics up front aren’t elite either (59th in line yards, 99th in stuff rate, 53rd in front-seven havoc).
Credit to this team for battling through injuries to key players up front like Jordan Botelho, Boubacar Traore, Gabe Rubio, and Howard Cross III. The line will get a boost with Cross back in the lineup on Friday, but it's worth noting that a few expected contributors have been knocked out for the year.
Indiana has a two-headed backfield consisting of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton, who share the workload just about evenly. Lawton’s rushing yardage prop of 47.5 is set five yards below his teammate’s, so I’m focusing on him this week.
The James Madison transfer steadily receives double-digit carries and therefore would only need to be mildly efficient to hit the Over. Considering the Hoosiers rank 12th in rushing success rate and are facing an Irish defense with just OK metrics against the rush, I like his chances of clearing this number.
Notre Dame has allowed 10 of its 12 opponents to clear the century mark on the ground. There will likely be an uptick in rush rate given the cold temperatures, so Lawton will be needed for Indiana offensively.
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